What do the Atlantic Ocean hurricane forecasts foretell for India?

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 7)

Forecasting Challenges for Hurricanes and Cyclones

• Meteorologists initially predicted a historic hurricane season for 2024, anticipating a strong La Niña to emerge during winter.
• However, while hurricanes Helene and Milton occurred, the summer of 2024 has not seen major hurricanes, leading to a reassessment of these forecasts.
• The expected strong La Niña has not developed as anticipated, prompting weather agencies to downgrade their forecasts.
• This inconsistency raises questions about whether the recent record warming has altered the traditional relationship between hurricanes and the El Niño/La Niña phenomena.

The Complexity of Hurricane Forecasting

• Seasonal cyclone forecasting remains a complex challenge.
• While overall hurricane forecasts have improved, particularly in predicting the landfall of storms, forecasting their intensity remains difficult.
• A significant gap exists in understanding the impacts of hurricanes after landfall, where post-landfall winds and rain can cause extensive damage and loss of life.
• Warming upper ocean temperatures in cyclone-producing regions have contributed to rapid intensification of storms, a phenomenon that remains challenging to predict accurately.
• The North Indian Ocean is experiencing an increase in cyclone activity, particularly in the Arabian Sea.

Chronic and Acute Climate Stressors

• Despite progress, the Indian subcontinent remains vulnerable to both chronic and acute climate stressors.
• Chronic stressors include rising sea levels and extreme weather patterns, while acute stressors, such as heavy rainfall and cyclones, exacerbate the effects of chronic issues. For instance, cyclones are likely to cause greater flooding as sea levels rise.
• Recent heavy rains and flooding in Tamil Nadu highlight the impact of warming oceans on monsoon patterns, causing extreme rainfall.
• Additionally, forecasting challenges were evident when a predicted low-pressure system missed its target area.

Future Directions for Forecasting and Resilience

• India, as a developing economy, must enhance its financial and resource management capabilities to cope with these challenges.
• Implementing hyperlocal risk mapping will be crucial, given the financial limitations in covering all regions for cyclone risks.
• India is incorporating mitigation and adaptation strategies into fiscal policies by investing in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and disaster management systems.
• However, the broader economic development of India hinges on the resilience of the entire subcontinent.

Conclusion

• The vulnerabilities posed by climate stressors represent not only socio-economic challenges but also national security concerns.
• India’s strategies for fostering cooperation and stability in the region must now encompass climate risk considerations.
• Establishing a comprehensive weather and climate network across the subcontinent is essential to improve forecasts and projections for all neighbouring countries, paving the way for enhanced regional resilience and collaboration.