China’s Mega Dam on Yarlung Tsangpo: A Looming Challenge for India and Downstream Nations

(Source – Indian Express, Section – Explained- Page No. – 09)

Analysis of the news:

Overview of the Project

• China’s approval of a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo, the world’s largest of its kind, raises significant geopolitical and environmental concerns.
• With a capacity of 60,000 MW, three times that of the Three Gorges Dam, the project leverages the river’s steep gradient in Tibet.
• However, its implications extend downstream to India and Bangladesh, affecting millions dependent on the Brahmaputra system for water, agriculture, and livelihoods.

Strategic Motivations and Environmental Risks

• China aims to transition towards greener energy sources and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.
• The Yarlung Tsangpo’s steep descent provides ideal conditions for hydroelectricity.
• However, large dams like the Three Gorges have had severe environmental impacts, including displacement, biodiversity disruption, and potential seismic risks due to massive water storage.
• Located in an ecologically fragile and earthquake-prone region, the project’s risks could cascade downstream, affecting agriculture, silt deposition, and river flow.

India’s Concerns

• India, as a lower riparian state, depends on the Brahmaputra system for agriculture and livelihoods.
• Any disruption in water flow or silt deposition from China’s upstream activities could severely impact Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
• The project’s location near the “Great Bend,” just before the river enters India, heightens these concerns.
• Historical incidents, like the 2004 Parechu Lake landslide, underline the risks of unilateral actions in such fragile regions.

Bilateral Mechanisms and Their Limitations

• Existing cooperation frameworks, including MoUs on the Brahmaputra and Sutlej rivers, have proven inadequate.
• While mechanisms like the 2013 umbrella MoU and the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention offer guidelines, their scope and enforcement remain limited.
• Data sharing, crucial during crises, has often been interrupted due to political tensions, such as during the Doklam and Ladakh standoffs.

India’s Options

India must adopt a multi-pronged approach:

• Diplomatic Engagement: Strengthen dialogue with China, emphasizing transparency and consultation under international norms.
• Public Advocacy: Actively challenge China’s claims about the project’s downstream impacts to avoid tacit acceptance.
• Regional Alliances: Collaborate with other affected nations like Bangladesh to present a united front.
• Domestic Preparedness: Enhance disaster management infrastructure and explore alternative water management strategies.

Water security should become a core issue in India-China relations, with clear signaling that neglecting India’s concerns could adversely affect bilateral ties.

Conclusion

• China’s Yarlung Tsangpo project exemplifies the complexities of transboundary river management.
• For India, safeguarding its interests requires a blend of assertive diplomacy, regional cooperation, and robust domestic measures to mitigate potential risks.
• The project’s scale and potential consequences demand sustained attention and proactive action.

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