El Niño or La Niña? Murky pattern of temperature keeps confusion alive
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 7)
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Topic: GS1 – Geography |
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Context |
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Unexpected Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Patterns
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SST patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean since early 2024 have evolved in an unusual way.
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Historically, El Niño has been linked to monsoon deficits, while La Niña is associated with above-average rainfall.
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SST patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean since early 2024 have evolved in an unusual way.
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Initial forecasts predicted a strong La Niña for late 2024, but SST anomalies shifted unexpectedly.
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Instead of cooling in the far eastern Pacific, warm SST anomalies appeared there, while cold SST anomalies moved westward.
The Role of Climate Variability in ENSO Transition
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The ENSO Transition Mode (ETM), a natural climate variability factor, likely influenced this shift.
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ETM may have prevented La Niña from emerging in 2024, despite earlier predictions.
Uncertain Climate Predictions for 2025
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Climate forecasts for summer and fall of 2025 remain mixed.
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Some models suggest a La Niña will form, others predict a neutral year, and one even forecasts a strong El Niño.
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The 2023 monsoon remained normal despite a strong El Niño, partly due to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Challenges in Forecasting and Climate Change Impact
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The relationship between ENSO and the Indian monsoon has changed over recent decades.
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Climate models struggle to predict future patterns due to record-high global temperatures.
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Mid-latitude climate changes, jet stream shifts, and pre-monsoon cyclones are further impacting the monsoon’s timing and intensity.
Implications for India
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Farmers remain uncertain about their crop yields, making monsoon forecasts crucial.
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The State and Union governments depend on accurate predictions to plan for possible droughts or floods.
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Climate scientists and the India Meteorological Department continue efforts to improve forecast reliability.
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Early heat waves in 2025 add further concerns about extreme weather patterns.
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PYQ: What characteristics can be assigned to a monsoon climate that succeeds in feeding more than 50 percent of the won population residing in Monsoon Asia?(250 words/15m) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-1 2017) |
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Practice Question: How do shifting sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific influence the Indian monsoon and its seasonal variability? (150 Words /10 marks) |
