El Niño Disrupts, La Niña Stabilizes: India’s Agri and Inflation Outlook

(Source – Indian Express, Section – Explained, Page – 14)

Topic: GS3 – Indian Economy

Context

A prolonged and intense El Niño from 2023 to 2024 disrupted India’s weather patterns, leading to poor crop yields, high food inflation, and reduced consumer spending.

Analysis of the news:

Unusual Ocean Warming and Weather Anomalies

• The 2023–24 El Niño event was both prolonged and intense, with sea surface temperatures off the coasts of Ecuador and Peru rising up to 2°C above the 30-year average.

• This significantly exceeded the 0.5°C threshold for El Niño classification, severely impacting weather patterns across the globe, including India.

Disrupted Monsoons and Agricultural Distress

• El Niño led to deficient rainfall during India’s monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter seasons.

• Delayed winters and excessive heat from March 2024 severely hit both kharif and rabi crop yields, resulting in a poor agricultural year.

• Subpar crop output contributed directly to food inflation and economic stress.

Prolonged Food Inflation and Dampened Consumption

• Food inflation averaged over 8.5% between July 2023 and December 2024 — one of the longest such spells in recent memory.

• This ate into household budgets, reducing discretionary spending. FMCG sector growth stalled, reflecting reduced consumer demand.

Turnaround with Mild La Niña and Better Weather

• The beginning of 2024 saw cooling Pacific waters, indicating mild La Niña-like conditions.

• This contributed to improved rainfall and weather, boosting rabi harvests and easing food inflation to 2.7% in March — the lowest since November 2021.

Wheat Situation: From Scarcity to Surplus

• Wheat stocks had dipped to a 16-year low, but the 2024 harvest saw a turnaround, especially in central India.

• Favorable weather and adoption of high-yielding varieties led to a bumper crop, stabilizing prices and strengthening government stocks.

Optimistic Outlook: Above Normal Monsoon Forecast

• The IMD has forecast an above-normal monsoon (105% of the long period average) for June–September 2025, with ENSO-neutral conditions expected.

• Alongside falling global oil prices and a weakening dollar, this presents a “positive terms of trade shock” — potentially boosting consumption and easing macroeconomic pressures.

Conclusion:

• While El Niño wreaked havoc on agriculture and food prices, improved climatic conditions, resilient farming practices, and supportive global trends signal a recovery phase — offering hope for inflation control and renewed economic momentum.

Practice Question: Discuss the impact of the 2023–24 El Niño event on India’s agriculture, food inflation, and overall economy. How can India build resilience against such climate-induced disruptions in the future?. (250 Words /15 marks)