A brief history of the Russia-Ukraine war
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 10)
| Topic: GS2 – International Relations |
| Context |
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How the War Began: A Brief History
- Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, expecting a quick victory.
- Western nations, including the U.S., initially believed Kyiv would fall quickly and vacated their embassies.
- Ukraine, with U.S.-supplied weapons, resisted, forcing the West to intervene.
- The U.S. imposed strict sanctions on Russia and provided military aid to Ukraine.
- By late 2022, Ukraine regained some territories, such as Kharkiv and Kherson.
- In response, Russia annexed four Ukrainian regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson—and called for partial mobilization.
- Russia shifted economic focus to Asian markets, including China and India, to counter sanctions.
Current Status of the War
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- By 2023, Russia gradually took control of Ukrainian territories, including Soledar in January and Bakhmut in May.
- In 2024, Russia advanced further, capturing Avdiivka in February, Krasnohorivka in September, and Vuhledar in October.
- Ukraine’s June 2023 counteroffensive failed, as Russia’s defenses remained strong.
- In August 2024, Ukraine briefly seized 1,000 sq. km in Russia’s Kursk region but failed to stop Russia’s advances in the east.
- By early 2025, Russia captured around 4,168 sq. km in both Ukraine and Russia.
- Ukraine increased drone and missile strikes inside Russia but remained on the defensive.
Trump’s Policy Shift
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- During his campaign, Mr. Trump promised to end the war quickly.
- After taking office in January 2025, his administration announced that Ukraine would not be a NATO member.
- The U.S. also ruled out any security guarantees for Ukraine.
- Mr. Trump held direct talks with Mr. Putin, signaling a reset in U.S.-Russia relations.
- The U.S. now views China as the main global threat and seeks to prevent a strong Russia-China alliance.
- Mr. Trump believes Ukraine cannot win the war even with U.S. support and wants Kyiv to accept a peace deal.
Europe’s Response
- European nations are struggling with the sudden U.S. policy change.
- In 2008, the U.S. promised NATO membership to Ukraine, but Germany and France were hesitant.
- After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Europe supported peace talks under the Minsk agreements, but they failed.
- Since the war began, Europe has faced economic challenges, including energy shortages and de-industrialization.
- Germany is in a recession for the third consecutive year, and far-right political groups are rising.
- Now, the U.S. is negotiating with Russia without including Ukraine or Europe.
- European countries have held emergency meetings to support Ukraine but lack independent security guarantees.
Ukraine’s Difficult Position
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- Ukraine has lost over 20% of its land to Russia and suffered heavy military losses.
- Millions of Ukrainians have fled, and the economy is in crisis.
- Ukraine depends on foreign aid for weapons, and its army is running low on manpower.
- U.S. officials acknowledge that Ukraine cannot reclaim lost land.
- NATO membership, once promised, is no longer an option.
Conclusion
- Ukraine faces two bad choices: continue fighting and risk losing more territory or accept a U.S.-Russia peace deal on unfavorable terms.
- The conflict highlights how powerful nations use smaller countries in their strategic battles, leaving Ukraine in a vulnerable position.
| Practice Question: Analyze the impact of the U.S.’s changing stance on the Ukraine conflict on global power dynamics. How should India navigate its diplomatic and strategic interests in light of these developments? (150 Words /10 marks) |
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