G20 Boycott

(Source – Indian Express, Section – Explained – Page No. – 13)

Analysis of the news:

What is G20?

• The G20 is an informal group of 19 countries and the European Union, with representatives of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
• The G20 membership comprises a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, Together, the G20 members represent more than 80% of world GDP, 75% of international trade and 60% of the world population.

South Africa’s Case Against Israel at ICJ

• The core reason behind Rubio’s announcement appears to be South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
• Many US Republicans, including Senator Lindsey Graham, have opposed the ICJ’s proceedings, viewing them as biased.
• South Africa, along with Malaysia, has formed a “Hague Group” to support the ICJ and counter potential US sanctions against the court.
• This legal and diplomatic stance has further strained US-South Africa relations.

Targeting the ICC and ICJ: US-Israel Nexus

• The US has historically opposed international legal action against Israel, with Trump’s first administration imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC).
• While Biden reversed these measures, the US reconsidered its stance after ICC announced investigations into both Israeli and Hamas leaders.
• The recent US House bill (H.R. 8282), which proposes new sanctions on the ICC, reflects ongoing efforts to shield Israel from international legal scrutiny.

G20 and the Future of US Engagement

• Rubio’s boycott raises questions about the US commitment to the G20 under Trump’s leadership.
• South Africa currently chairs the G20, and Trump’s past interactions with the group have been marked by isolationist policies and trade disputes.
• The uncertainty over Trump 2.0’s stance on multilateralism could impact G20’s effectiveness, potentially increasing Russian and Chinese influence if the US distances itself.

India’s Concerns and Strategic Implications

• India has positioned the G20 as a key forum for addressing global challenges and has benefited from its leadership in the Global South.
• Under Biden, India’s G20 presidency in 2023 received strong US support, reinforcing India’s diplomatic role.
• However, a Trump administration’s transactional approach could undermine India’s Global South strategy if Washington deprioritizes multilateral engagement.

Conclusion:

• If the US withdraws from G20 leadership, it could weaken the institution and shift global influence toward Russia and China.
• Alternatively, Rubio’s announcement may be a negotiation tactic, pressuring South Africa to soften its stance on Israel.
• India must navigate these shifts carefully, balancing its Global South leadership with its strategic partnerships with both the US and G20 members.

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