Global coordination can trump efforts to undercut climate predictions

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 7)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations, GS3 – Environment

Context

In the second term of the President of the United States, several hundred employees of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were fired. This decision raised concerns among the climate community as NOAA plays a key role in weather and climate services.

Weather Forecasting and Climate Predictions

• Weather forecasting requires understanding global patterns, while climate predictions focus on long-term meteorological changes.

• Climate projections provide possible scenarios for the future and are coordinated by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• Every few years, the IPCC compiles simulations from different climate models to produce an assessment report, with the most recent report issued in 2021-2022.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

NOAA is a U.S. federal agency under the Department of Commerce, responsible for monitoring oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Established in 1970, it plays a crucial role in weather forecasting, climate monitoring, ocean research, and fisheries management. It operates key organizations like the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in US. NOAA manages satellites, radar systems, and ocean buoys to collect environmental data. It supports global climate studies, including contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). NOAA’s research helps in disaster preparedness, marine conservation, and understanding climate change impacts.

Need for Global Coordination in Climate Predictions

• Climate predictions require accurate models based on global observational data, including information from weather stations and satellites.

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) oversees global coordination for these efforts, as no single country has enough data collection capabilities.

• Different climate centers use varied methodologies for data assimilation, and combining predictions from multiple centers improves accuracy.

Challenges in Climate Predictions

• Political decisions, such as the reduction of NOAA’s workforce, could impact global climate prediction systems.

• There is a need for a globally coordinated system to ensure that predictions are accurate and not affected by political instability.

• A well-organized global effort would lead to better forecasting models and improve responses to extreme weather events.

• Existing climate models do not provide sufficient detail for regional and local adaptation efforts.

Challenges in Long-Term Climate Projections

• Climate projections currently focus on predictions up to the year 2100, but experts suggest focusing on shorter, socially relevant timescales of a few decades.

• Existing models consider factors such as energy innovation, population growth, and climate policies but do not account for political disruptions, such as the downsizing of NOAA.

Need for Cost-Benefit Analysis

• Climate prediction centers must justify their funding through cost-benefit analyses rather than assuming their value is self-evident.

• If some prediction centers perform better with fewer resources, their efficiency should be studied and replicated.

• The IPCC should also conduct a cost-benefit analysis to ensure climate centers remain resilient despite financial constraints.

Conclusion

• A globally coordinated climate prediction system is necessary to ensure reliable and resilient forecasting.

• Delays in strengthening prediction efforts may lead to vulnerabilities and funding cuts for climate research centers.

Practice Question: Discuss the need for global coordination in climate prediction efforts. How can international collaboration enhance the accuracy and effectiveness of climate forecasts? (150 Words /10 marks)