How futures thinking can help Indian businesses navigate uncertainty
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 13)
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Topic: GS3 – Indian Economy |
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Context |
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Rapid Disruptions in Global Business
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In 2025, businesses face increasing geopolitical tensions, fragile supply chains, and the fast-paced development of artificial intelligence.
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Traditional strategic planning, which relied on historical data and gradual adjustments, is no longer effective in addressing these rapid disruptions.
Challenges for India in a Changing World
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India’s efforts toward digital transformation and self-reliance in key industries like semiconductors and electric vehicles are taking place in a highly uncertain global environment.
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The government’s push for securing critical minerals is crucial to reducing supply chain vulnerabilities.
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Businesses need to understand that dependence on foreign supply chains increases the risk of unexpected disruptions.
Adopting a Foresight-Based Approach
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Businesses should expand their analysis to include economic, political, social, and environmental trends to ensure long-term success.
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Ignoring environmental and social factors, such as climate change and migration, can lead to sudden disruptions, affecting profits.
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Decision-makers should integrate various trends rather than analyzing them in isolation, as multiple factors often interact in complex ways.
Understanding Indirect Impacts
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Many businesses only consider direct impacts of trends but fail to assess their indirect consequences.
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For example, biodiversity loss directly affects agriculture, but it also leads to rising food prices, impacting household spending and overall economic stability.
Moving from Reactive to Proactive Strategies
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Companies often focus on responding to immediate risks rather than addressing underlying causes.
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Instead of just securing alternative suppliers, businesses should contribute to long-term resilience, such as improving water management in drought-prone cotton-producing regions.
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Whether it is ensuring resources for India’s energy transition, strengthening supply chains, or improving food security, businesses that anticipate and adapt will be better prepared for future uncertainties.
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Practice Question: In an era of increasing global disruptions, traditional business strategies are proving insufficient. Discuss how foresight-based approaches can help Indian businesses navigate geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges (250 Words /15 marks) |
