Is Syria’s Assad regime in danger?
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 10)
| Topic: GS2 – International Relations |
| Context |
| ● The Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, has seen intermittent phases of conflict and relative calm.
● Recently, Islamist militants launched an offensive, capturing significant territories, including Aleppo and Hama, destabilizing the Assad regime’s control. ● Geopolitical shifts, including Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine, have contributed to the regime’s vulnerabilities. |
Renewed Conflict in Syria
- Islamist militants launched a surprise offensive in northwest Syria, capturing key territories, including Aleppo.
- This marks the resumption of active conflict after a relative calm since 2016.
Shift in Territorial Control
- Prior to Russia’s intervention in 2015, the Assad regime controlled only Damascus and coastal cities.
- Post-2016, the regime regained territories with Russian and Iranian support, pushing militants into Idlib.
- Last week’s offensive allowed militants to more than double their territorial holdings, including Aleppo and parts of Hama.
Key Actors in the Conflict
- The Regime: Backed by Russia, Iran, and Shia militias, it seeks to retain control.
- Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Kurdish militias backed by the U.S., controlling northeast Syria.
- Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): A jihadist group leading the current offensive, along with the Syrian National Army (SNA).
HTS: A Leading Militant Group
- HTS evolved from al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, led by a U.S.-designated terrorist.
- It controls Idlib and has declared its fight against the Assad regime, not the U.S.
Geopolitical Factors Driving the Offensive
- Russia’s focus on Ukraine and reduced presence in Syria weakened regime support.
- Iran and Hezbollah, key allies of Assad, are overstretched or weakened due to external conflicts and airstrikes.
- Turkey reportedly backed the militants, exploiting the regime’s vulnerabilities.
Implications for the Future
- Rebel advances signal a potential resurgence of civil war across Syria.
Regime forces are regrouping with reinforcements from Iraqi militias, but prolonged bloodshed is likely
