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‘Stagflation’ fears haunt markets despite Trump’s growth plan

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(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 13)

Topic: GS3 – Economy
Context
  • Fears of stagflation rise in the U.S. due to inflation, tariffs, and economic slowdown concerns.

 Concerns Over Stagflation in the U.S.:

Rising Inflation and Trade Policies

  • Stubborn inflation and Donald Trump’s strict trade policies have raised fears of stagflation, a mix of slow economic growth and high inflation.
  • This was a major issue in the 1970s but has not yet become a real threat in recent years.

Investor and Economist Concerns

  • Trade wars and tariffs could slow S. economic growth while inflation remains high.
  • Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager, stated that stagflation is now a real possibility due to these policies.
  • Inflation rose in January at the fastest pace since August 2023, making the situation more concerning.

Tariffs and Economic Growth

  • Trump’s tariffs could act as a tax on consumers, increasing prices and reducing profits and growth.
  • A Bank of America survey found that more investors are expecting stagflation in the next year.
  • Some experts believe that tariffs could support growth by reducing global competition, but they could also increase price pressures initially.
 What is stagflation?
Stagflation

  • The term stagflation was coined by Iain Macleod, a British politician, in 1965 during a speech in the UK Parliament.
  • Stagflation is a situation where an economy faces both slow growth and high inflation at the same time.
  • It is a rare and difficult economic condition because usually, inflation happens when the economy is growing fast.
  • “Stagflation” is a combination of stagnation (slow growth) and inflation (rising prices).
  • It leads to job losses, higher prices for goods and services, and lower purchasing power for people.
  • Causes include supply shocks (such as rising oil prices), government policies, and trade restrictions.
  • The U.S. faced severe stagflation in the 1970s, caused by oil price hikes and weak growth.
Practice Question:  Discuss the phenomenon of stagflation, its causes, and its impact on economic growth and policy-making. How can governments tackle stagflation effectively? (150 Words /10 marks)

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