Trump Seeks to Renegotiate Nuclear Deal with Iran Amid Regional Tensions

Topic: GS2 – International Relations

Context

• Trump has reached out to Iran’s Supreme Leader to renegotiate a nuclear deal amid shifting geopolitical dynamics and Iran’s economic struggles.

What was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)?

• The deal is also known as 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal.
• The JCPOA was the result of prolonged negotiations from 2013 and 2015 between Iran and P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States + Germany).
• Under the deal, Iran agreed to significantly cut its stores of centrifuges, enriched uranium and heavy-water, all key components for nuclear weapons.
• Iran also agreed to implement a protocol that would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access its nuclear sites to ensure Iran would not be able to develop nuclear weapons in secret.
• While the West agreed to lift sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear proliferation, other sanctions addressing alleged abuses of human rights and Iran’s ballistic missile programme remained in place.
• The US committed to lifting sanctions on oil exports, but continued to restrict financial transactions, which have deterred international trade with Iran.
• Nonetheless, Iran’s economy, after suffering years of recessions, currency depreciation, and inflation, stabilized significantly after the deal took effect, and its exports skyrocketed.
• After US abandoned the deal in 2018 and reinstated banking and oil sanctions, Iran ramped up its nuclear programme in earnest, returning to approximately 97% of its pre-2015 nuclear capabilities.

What is the significance of JCPOA for India?

• Removing sanctions may revive India’s interest in the Chabahar port, Bandar Abbas port, and other plans for regional connectivity.
• This would further help India to neutralize the Chinese presence in Gwadar port, Pakistan.
• Apart from Chabahar, India’s interest in the International North-South Transit Corridor (INSTC), which runs through Iran, and will improve connectivity with five Central Asian republics, may also get a boost.

Practice Question: Discuss the implications of Trump’s attempt to renegotiate a nuclear deal with Iran. How do shifting geopolitical dynamics and Iran’s economic struggles influence the feasibility of such an agreement? (150 Words /10 marks)