13 August 2024 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. Relook at Dhaka

(Source: Indian Express; Section: The Ideas Page; Page: 11)

Topic: GS2– International Relations – Bilateral Relations

Context:

The article discusses the significant political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the subsequent rise of an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. It highlights the implications of this change for regional stability, especially in relation to India-Bangladesh relations, which have seen substantial progress over the past 15 years.

A Watershed Moment in Bangladesh’s History

• The ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in a mass uprising and the subsequent assumption of power by an interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus mark a significant turning point in Bangladesh’s turbulent history.
• This development, hailed as a moment of “people’s power,” carries both risks and opportunities.
• The event demands a careful and wise approach from all parties invested in regional stability, as the stakes are high for the future of Bangladesh and its neighbors.

The Importance of Stability for Regional Security

• For nearly 15 years, Bangladesh has played a crucial role in ensuring regional security by denying its territory to terrorist and insurgent organizations that threaten India’s safety.
• This shift was made possible through the efforts of the Bangladeshi government during this period, and the cooperative relationship between India and Bangladesh.
• The significance of this partnership is something that cannot be overlooked by any government in New Delhi.
• India’s longstanding policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, including Bangladesh, reflects a commitment to respecting sovereignty, despite perceived influence over decision-makers in Dhaka.

Progress in Bilateral Relations

• Over the last decade and a half, India and Bangladesh have enjoyed a peaceful relationship, free from the hostility that once characterized their interactions.
• This period of calm has allowed for significant progress in various areas, such as security, connectivity, trade, and infrastructure development.
• The strong ties between the two countries are evidenced by the large number of Bangladeshi nationals who visit India annually, and by the impressive growth in bilateral trade, which reached $18 billion in 2021-22.
• The cooperation in the power and energy sector, once unimaginable, has become a cornerstone of their relationship, with Bangladesh importing substantial amounts of electricity from India.

Socio-Economic Development in Bangladesh

• Bangladesh has made remarkable strides in socio-economic development, with improvements in literacy, infant mortality, women’s empowerment, and financial inclusion being widely recognized and respected in India.
• The success of Bangladesh’s garment industry has inspired similar efforts in India, and the microfinance model pioneered by the Grameen Bank has been adopted by several Indian institutions.
• These achievements underscore the potential for continued collaboration and mutual benefit between the two nations.

Challenges and Unresolved Issues

• Despite the progress, challenges remain in the India-Bangladesh relationship.
• Concerns persist in Bangladesh about the killing of nationals at the border by Indian security forces, despite efforts to reduce such incidents.
• The issue of equitable water sharing, a critical priority for Bangladesh, remains unresolved due to India’s growing needs.
• While these complex issues are yet to be fully addressed, there is hope that with political will and perseverance, solutions can be found that satisfy both sides.
• Mutual recrimination and the stirring of negative sentiments will not contribute to resolving these disputes.

The Path Forward: Embracing Change and Cooperation

• The fall of the previous regime in Bangladesh has raised concerns about the potential for a return to the divisive, winner-takes-all politics of the past, as well as the threat of religious extremism and geopolitical rivalries.
• These are serious concerns that must be carefully considered by all stakeholders, both within Bangladesh and in the broader region.
• As new social and political forces emerge in Bangladesh, the young leaders who led the movement for change must remember that millions of Indians share the aspirations of their Bangladeshi counterparts and wish them success.

Conclusion: A Future of Hope and Cooperation

• As India and Bangladesh look to the future, they must do so with renewed hope and confidence.
• The fundamental reset that has taken place in Bangladesh offers both nations the opportunity to move beyond the negativism of the past and embrace a future of cooperation and mutual respect.
• The common challenges they face, from poverty to climate change, can only be effectively addressed through collaboration rather than hostility and mistrust.
• A return to the adversarial dynamics of the past is not an option; the path forward must be one of partnership and shared progress.

What Should be India’s approach to deal with the Bangladesh Crisis?

Support to popular expression- India as a vibrant multi-party democracy, should be seen as supporting the expression of popular will in a sensitive neighbouring country. For ex- India’s support to people’s movement in Nepal in 2006 against the dictatorial monarchical rule and restoration of multi-party democracy. Expression of readiness to expand the bilateral ties- India should express its readiness to expand the bilateral economic engagement with a successor government. The temptation to brand the ongoing political change as anti-India or anti-Hindu should be avoided. Cautiousness and Discreteness- India should be cautious and discreet in its reactions. India should keep the door open for the continuance of close and mutually beneficial ties, as India has adopted in the case of hostile regime in Maldives under Mohamed Muizzu. Establishment of Joint Task Forces and Smart Border Management- There is a need to establish joint task forces comprising law enforcement agencies from both countries to effectively combat cross-border drug smuggling, human trafficking and Illegal immigration. Establishment Digital Connectivity Corridor- There is a need to establish a digital connectivity corridor between the two countries, focusing on high-speed internet connectivity, digital services, and e-commerce. This can create new avenues for trade, collaboration, and technological exchange. Early conclusion of India-Bangladesh Free Trade Agreement (FTA)- Bangladesh is set to lose its Least Developed Country (LDC) status after 2026, thereby losing its duty-free and quota-free market access in India. Hence India should finalize a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Bangladesh at the earliest. India must also ensure that the FTA is not misused by China to dump goods in India through RCEP agreement (Bangladesh is also a member of RCEP agreement). The resignation of Sheikh Hasina serves as a lesson that resonates not only in Bangladesh but across the globe, highlighting the delicate balance between socio-economic progress and democratic values, that matter no less to people for whom these have never been mutually exclusive.

Practice Question:  Analyze the implications of the political upheaval in Bangladesh on India-Bangladesh relations and regional stability. Discuss the challenges and opportunities this transition presents for both countries, with reference to historical and socio-economic contexts. (250 words/15 m)