15 February 2025 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. Mission accomplished

(Source – Indian Express, Section – The Editorial Page – Page No. – 10)

Key Takeaways for India

• Joint statements often provide insights into the most significant outcomes of such meetings.
• The six featured areas—defense, trade and investment, energy, technology and innovation, multilateral cooperation, and people-to-people ties—reflect India’s priorities.
• The first three, in particular, stand out as the most crucial.
• Interestingly, the placement of multilateral cooperation at the end of the statement underscores the US’s preference for bilateral, transactional dealings rather than regional or international partnerships.
• Consequently, this section contained only general and non-controversial statements.

Managing Friction Points: Trade, Immigration, and Security

• Two major points of contention—trade and immigration—were handled diplomatically.
• The US refrained from directly criticizing India on tariffs, instead opting to work toward a broader trade agreement by fall 2025 to reduce India’s trade surplus.
• On immigration, both nations agreed to combat illegal migration aggressively, aligning with US concerns while ensuring that student and professional visa programs continue.
• A third potential point of tension, the Gurpatwant Singh Pannun case, was subtly addressed.
• A White House official emphasized Trump’s commitment to American security, hinting that the issue was raised.
• Meanwhile, India and the US agreed in their joint statement to tackle threats to public and diplomatic safety, allowing both sides to frame their concerns—India regarding separatist activities and the US regarding the Pannun case—within a cooperative security framework.

Strategic Agreements and Collaborations

Beyond addressing points of friction, the meeting yielded three major agreements:

1. Defense Partnership Expansion – A new 10-year defense agreement is set to be signed later this year, covering acquisitions of Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stryker combat vehicles, and additional P-81 maritime patrol aircraft. Additionally, India and the US will co-produce AI-enabled underwater unmanned systems. Trump also hinted at the possibility of selling F-35 fighter jets to India.
2. Energy Trade Commitments – To help address India’s trade surplus, India will increase its oil and gas imports from the US, rising from $15 billion to $25 billion in the near future. Furthermore, the civil liability framework will be improved to facilitate US assistance in building nuclear reactors.
3. Strategic Mineral Recovery Initiative – This initiative aims to recover essential minerals from industrial waste in sectors like coal mining and oil and gas. Given China’s dominance in critical mineral supply chains, this agreement holds strategic economic and military importance for India.

A Symbolic and Substantive Success

• Modi’s visit was both symbolically and practically significant.
• The warm reception from Trump, along with interactions with influential figures like Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, and Vivek Ramaswamy, reinforced India’s growing strategic importance.
• While some trade concerns remain, the foundation for deeper cooperation in defense, trade, energy, and technology appears solid.
• As Modi and his delegation return, they can reflect on a meeting that successfully navigated potential conflicts while securing key agreements.

2. Masters of the sea

(Source – Indian Express, Section – The Ideas Page- Page No. – 11)

Analysis of the news:

What is Indian Ocean Conference (IOC)

• IOC is an annual international conference that focuses on the geopolitical, economic, and strategic importance of the Indian Ocean region.
• The conference brings together policymakers, scholars, business leaders, and civil society representatives to discuss issues related to security, trade, and cooperation in the Indian Ocean region.
• The first edition of the Conference was held in Singapore in 2016. The seventh edition of IOC was organised in 2024 in Perth, Australia.
• Organised by – the India Foundation in partnership with other organizations in the region.

The Indian Ocean’s Historical Significance

• Unlike the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, which were named based on mythology and physical characteristics, the Indian Ocean derives its name from India’s civilizational influence over millennia.
• This vast ocean connects 26 countries and serves as a vital trade and cultural link for landlocked nations like Nepal and Bhutan.
• While contemporary discourse focuses on the Indo-Pacific as a strategic concept influenced by big-power competition, the Indian Ocean remains a natural and historical entity, shaped by centuries of trade, cultural exchange, and maritime connectivity.

India’s Maritime Dominance and Decline

• Historically, India was a dominant economic power in the first millennium, leveraging its maritime capabilities.
• Ancient Indian merchants and kings, such as the Pallavas and Cholas, established robust trade routes across the Indian Ocean, linking India with the Arab world, Southeast Asia, and beyond.
• However, India’s decline in naval strength coincided with its economic downturn.
• During the second millennium, European colonial powers—Portuguese, Dutch, French, and British—exploited the Indian Ocean and transformed it into a colonial zone.
• The British, despite their naval prowess, neglected to develop India’s maritime capabilities, a strategic oversight that persisted even after Independence.
• As a result, India fell behind in shipbuilding and maritime influence, ranking 20th globally in shipbuilding with a mere 0.06% market share.

The Revival of India’s Maritime Strategy

• The first major advocate for India’s maritime focus was K.M. Panikkar, a diplomat who, in 1945, warned that India’s peninsular geography and dependence on maritime trade necessitated a strong naval presence.
• However, India’s leadership remained preoccupied with a continental mindset, delaying the country’s maritime resurgence.
• It was only in recent decades that India began to recognize its strategic position in the Indian Ocean.
• Today, 70% of global container traffic and 90% of India’s energy trade pass through these waters, reinforcing their critical role in global trade and India’s economic security.

Geopolitical Competition and the Indian Ocean

• The Indian Ocean is now a focal point of global power dynamics, with major players asserting influence.
• The U.S., U.K., and France maintain a strong presence through military bases like Diego Garcia and Reunion Island, while China has rapidly expanded its reach via port investments and undersea communication networks.
• Recognizing the need to assert its leadership, India launched the SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) initiative in 2015, positioning itself as a responsible maritime power and champion of the Global South.

Emerging Challenges in the Indian Ocean Region

The region faces several security and environmental challenges, including:

• Piracy and sea-borne terrorism threatening maritime trade
• Illegal fishing, human trafficking, and arms smuggling
• Climate change-induced issues such as rising sea levels and extreme weather events
• Growing digital infrastructure competition, with undersea cables now a battleground for influence between European firms and China’s Huawei

Maintaining Regional Supremacy

• Alfred T. Mahan, a renowned geopolitical strategist, famously stated that maritime supremacy in the Indian Ocean translates to global influence.
• As the IOC convenes in Muscat, it serves as a reminder that regional countries must retain control over their maritime affairs.
• By strengthening cooperation through diplomacy, security initiatives, and economic partnerships, India and its Indian Ocean partners can ensure that the region remains a zone of peace and prosperity, free from external domination.