17 December 2024 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. A Crisis In The Making

(Source: Indian Express; Section: Editorial Page; Page: 12)

Topic: GS1 – Society: Population and associated issues

Context

The article highlights India’s demographic advantage, with a large working-age population poised to drive economic growth. However, challenges like poor education, malnutrition, and inadequate skill development hinder the potential of this workforce. It emphasizes the urgent need for policies focusing on health, nutrition, and education to maximize the benefits of this demographic dividend and secure future economic stability.

Analysis of the News

India’s Demographic Advantage

• India is currently in its demographic prime, with 67.3% of its population in the working-age group (15-59 years), a demographic advantage expected to last three decades.
• Approximately 26% of the population is below 14 years, and only 7% is above 65, compared to 17% in the US and 21% in Europe.
• By 2030, India’s working-age population will rise to 68.9%, with a median age of 28.4 years and a dependency ratio of 31.2%.
• India will have the world’s largest workforce in absolute numbers, with 1.04 billion working-age people.

Economic Potential and Challenges

• Translating this demographic advantage into economic dividends requires high productivity and wealth creation through sectors like advanced technology, IT, R&D, healthcare, and life sciences.
• Achieving a $7 trillion GDP target by 2030 depends on equipping the workforce with proper education, skills, and good health.
• Cognitive development and physical health, starting from the foetal stage and continuing through childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, are critical for building the required skills.

Current Workforce Shortcomings (15-49 Years)

• Data from NFHS-5 highlights critical gaps: Only 41% of women and 50.2% of men have completed 10+ years of schooling.
• High anaemia prevalence: 57% in women and 25% in men.
• Malnutrition: 18.7% of women and 16.2% of men have a BMI below normal.
• Despite several skilling initiatives, employers struggle to find suitably skilled workers, and unemployment rates among educated youth remain high.

Future Workforce (15-24 Years)

• Among adolescents, who will form India’s workforce for the next three decades:
• Only 34% of girls and 35.9% of boys aged 15-24 have completed 12+ years of schooling.
• Anaemia affects 59% of girls and 31% of boys.
• Only about 55% have a normal Body Mass Index (BMI).

• The Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) 2023 indicates poor foundational learning:

• Nationally, only 77% of 17-18-year-olds can read a Class 2-level textbook, and only 35% can perform basic division.
• Learning levels show minimal improvement across Grades V-VIII, indicating stagnant educational outcomes.

Challenges for the Next Generation Workforce (Children Under Five)

The foundational health and nutrition status of children paints a bleak picture for India’s future workforce:

• 35.5% of children under five are stunted, 19.3% are wasted, and 32.1% are underweight.
• 67.1% of children aged 6-59 months are anaemic.
• Only 11.3% of children aged 6-23 months receive a minimally adequate diet, despite a marginal improvement from 9.6% in NFHS-4.
• Early childhood nutrition is crucial, as 90% of brain development occurs before the age of five. Poor nutrition leads to cognitive and physical impairments, limiting future learning and skill acquisition.

Long-Term Implications

• Post-2030, India’s working-age population will start declining, while the ageing population will rise.
• A poorly educated and malnourished population lacking skills will become a burden on the economy.
• The lack of disposable income in a large, under-skilled population will hinder economic growth through consumption.
• Migration of underprivileged human capital to foreign markets with limited opportunities is not a sustainable solution.

Call for Policy Redesign

• A real-time analysis of the current and future demographic dividend is urgently needed.
• Policies must focus on strengthening health, nutrition, and education across the life cycle to prepare the workforce for future economic and job market opportunities.
• Investments in early childhood development, better education, and robust skilling programs are critical to fully capitalising on India’s demographic potential.

Conclusion

India’s demographic dividend offers immense opportunities, but significant challenges in health, education, and skills development threaten to undermine its potential. Immediate, targeted policy interventions are required to ensure that this advantage drives sustainable economic growth rather than becoming a burden.