27 June 2024 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. Safe drinking, not morality

(Source: Indian Express; Section: The Editorial Page; Page: 10)

Topic: GS2 – Governance GS2 – Social Justice

Context:

India’s recurring tragedies, which lead to countless lives lost and maimed, from road traffic accidents to monsoon flooding, have one common thread: an incompetent state unable to enforce the laws. This systemic failure manifests in various catastrophic events, exacerbated by a state apparatus that oscillates between strict enforcement and lax oversight. The inability to maintain consistent law enforcement contributes significantly to the frequency and severity of these tragedies.

The Moral Dimension of Illicit Alcohol:

• A particularly stark example of this incompetence is the recurrent calamities due to the consumption of illicit alcohol.
• These tragedies, such as the recent Kallakurichi hooch tragedy in Tamil Nadu where nearly 60 people died, highlight the moral dimension underlying many of these events.
• The consumption of illicit alcohol leads to poisoning and death, issues exacerbated by the state’s contradictory stance on alcohol consumption.

Historical Context of Alcohol in India:

• The conflicting relationship the state has with alcohol consumption is deeply rooted in India’s history. References to alcohol can be found in Vedic texts, and its use persisted through the Mughal period despite religious prohibitions.
• The British colonial era introduced new dynamics, restricting traditional patterns of drinking and promoting industrially produced alcohol, which was heavily taxed.
• This period saw the rise of “Indian-made foreign liquor,” symbolizing a colonial attempt to undermine local culture.

Post-Independence Prohibition and Contradictions:

• After independence, India became the only secular and democratic country to mandate the prohibition of intoxicating substances in its constitution.
• However, this moral stance was inconsistently enforced, with only a few states, such as Gujarat, fully implementing prohibition.
• The elite classes, who had already integrated alcohol into their social lives, largely ignored these prohibitions, leading to a patchwork of state policies ranging from liberal to draconian.

The Illicit Moonshine Industry:

• The contradictory positions on alcohol have sustained an illegal moonshine industry.
• This industry thrives due to the enormous profits generated from meeting the demand for alcohol in contexts where it is criminalized.
• Law enforcement agencies and the political class often collude with the mafia or fail to enforce the law effectively.
• The poor suffer the most from these policies, as they are more likely to consume illicit alcohol and face severe consequences, including imprisonment.

The Need for National Consensus:

• A national consensus is needed to find the right balance in the approach to alcohol consumption.
• This should be guided by public health science and the experiences of other countries.
• Reexamining policies on alcohol and other substances like cannabis could lead to regulated, quality-controlled production and distribution, alongside strict enforcement of laws against alcohol-related offenses.
• Treatment for harmful drinking should evolve to include evidence-based psychosocial interventions, reducing stigma and integrating care into the primary healthcare network.

Lessons from Other Countries:

• India can learn from the experiences of other countries, such as the UK’s approach to reducing drink-driving incidents.
• A combination of policy changes and strict law enforcement over a decade led to a cultural shift making it socially unacceptable to drink and drive.
• India needs to embark on a similar journey, combining legal reforms with public health initiatives to address the underlying issues contributing to its recurring tragedies.

Practice Question:  India’s recurring tragedies, ranging from road traffic accidents to monsoon flooding and the consumption of illicit alcohol, highlight a significant failure in governance and law enforcement. Discuss the role of the state in preventing these tragedies and suggest measures to improve the situation. (250 words/15 m)

2. It is about the jobs

(Source: Indian Express; Section: The Ideas Page; Page: 11)

Topic: GS3 – Indian Economy – Inclusive Growth

Context:

Over the next few years, as the Indian economy continues its forward march, significant changes in the global economic order are expected. According to IMF projections, India is on track to surpass Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world by the end of 2025. Two years thereafter, it is expected to surpass Germany, becoming the third-largest economy. From then on, the top three slots in the global economic rankings—occupied by the US, China, and India—are likely to be fixed, barring any major catastrophes.

Projected Growth and its Implications:

• By the end of the current government’s term, the IMF expects India’s GDP to have increased to $5.8 trillion, up from $3.5 trillion now—implying an addition of $2.3 trillion, which is just shy of the combined size of Spain and the Netherlands today.
• The Fund’s projections imply real growth averaging 6.5 percent during this period. While this seems achievable and is broadly in line with the pace at which the economy has grown over the past two decades, it falls short of the growth rates achieved during the mid-2000s.
• Therefore, India will remain the poorest nation among the largest economies in the world for the foreseeable future.
• With its per capita income expected to touch $4,281 by 2028-29, the country is unlikely to make the ranks of the upper middle-income category by then.

The Challenge of Sustaining Growth:

• These projections, however, are subject to significant variability. Sustaining the healthy growth rates of the last few years over the medium to longer term, and broadening the consumption base, will be challenging.
• Large sections of the labor force in the country continue to be trapped in low-productive jobs.
• Data from recent government surveys show that the number of informal enterprises in the country has risen significantly, with roughly 11 crore workers engaged in these establishments.
• Many of these establishments are essentially one-man roadside shops, characterized by low productivity and earnings.

The Informal Sector and Low Productivity:

• The number of informal enterprises in India has risen from 5.76 crore in 2010-11 to 6.5 crore in 2022-23. These enterprises provide employment to a significant portion of the labor force, but the productivity and earnings in these establishments are low.
• Value added in such establishments is around Rs 1.4 lakh, while it is roughly 10 times higher at Rs 15.04 lakh for workers in formal enterprises.
• Wage growth in these informal enterprises has barely kept pace with inflation, leading to little to no real wage growth for the better part of the last decade.

Employment and Labor Market Duality:

• To the 11 crore workers in non-farm informal enterprises, add the 23-odd crore engaged in agriculture, and that is almost two-thirds of the labor force engaged in low-productive jobs in less productive sectors.
• The absence of low or semi-skilled job opportunities in the more productive formal manufacturing sector, combined with a lack of education to enter the more skilled forms of formal employment, leaves many workers with precarious forms of employment in the gig economy.
• Companies like Uber, Zomato, and Swiggy have become some of the largest employment generators in the country, highlighting the rise of informal and precarious employment.

The Changing Labor Market Dynamics:

• The issue of jobs, or the lack thereof, has been a constant in India’s development story. However, recent years have seen changes such as the youth bulge, rising labor force participation rate, especially among women, and the declining share of value added by the informal sector.
• Additionally, the growing capital intensity of production in sectors that are more labor-intensive in nature and the fall in migration indicate potential challenges.
• The decline in Railway passenger traffic compared to pre-pandemic levels suggests a reduction in migration, affecting the transfer of resources from urban to rural areas.

Fiscal Challenges and Social Implications:

• If such an employment situation persists, governments will find it difficult to restrict fiscal transfers to the less well-off. High levels of taxation on the more affluent and increasing giveaways at the lower end have their limits.
• The fallout from not being able to create more productive jobs on a sufficiently large scale is likely to manifest in less social mobility and high-income inequality.
• This will determine whether the country will resemble East Asia or end up going the Latin American way.

PYQ: Normally countries shift from agriculture to industry and then later to services, but India shifted directly from agriculture to services. What are the reasons for the huge growth of services vis-a-vis industry in the country? Can India become a developed country without a strong industrial base? (200 words/12.5m) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-3 2014)

Practice Question:  India’s projected economic growth and its trajectory towards becoming one of the largest economies in the world present significant opportunities and challenges. Discuss the implications of this growth on the informal sector and employment. How can India address the duality in its labor market to ensure sustainable and inclusive economic development? (250 words/15 m)