31 July 2024 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. Not somebody else’s war

(Source: Indian Express; Section: The Ideas Page; Page: 11)

Topic: GS2– International Relations

Context:

The article discusses the significance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine as a potential reconfiguration of India’s approach to European security.

Narendra Modi’s Visit to Ukraine: A Strategic Shift

• Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine is poised to signal a significant shift in India’s approach to European security.
• For decades, political rivalries among European powers have influenced the evolution of modern India and Asia, yet European geopolitics has largely been absent from India’s strategic focus in recent years.
• The war in Ukraine has, however, placed Europe at the forefront of India’s international agenda.
• Traditionally, Indian discourse has viewed the Ukraine conflict either as Western pressure or as a moment of solidarity with Russia.
• Delhi now has the opportunity to reframe this perspective and see the Ukraine war as a catalyst for re-engaging with European peace and security.

India’s Recent Engagements with Europe

• In recent years, India has increased its political and diplomatic engagement with Europe, which is a leading economic partner and an important source of technology, both civilian and military. However, this engagement has lacked a strategic character.
• Over the past decade, India has recalibrated its strategies towards Asia, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East, but Europe has remained outside these efforts.
• Since the end of the Cold War, a peaceful and integrating Europe did not necessitate a strategic focus from Delhi. This “non-strategic” thinking was reinforced by Europe’s own bias towards trade and commerce, despite its aspirations to be a geopolitical actor.

The Impact of the Ukraine War on Europe and India

• The Russian invasion of Ukraine has disrupted the status quo, forcing both Europe and India to reconsider their strategic complacency.
• Russia, feeling betrayed by post-Cold War agreements, is willing to play hardball to restructure the European security order.
• Concurrently, the US, deeply involved in supporting Ukraine, faces internal divisions regarding its approach to the conflict.
• Some factions within the US advocate for escalation, while others seek de-escalation, and there is a growing sentiment for Europe to take more responsibility for its defense, allowing the US to focus on Asia.
• Europe itself is grappling with internal divisions on how to address the Russian threat. Historically neutral countries like Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, while NATO members Hungary and Turkey pursue their own paths in dealing with the war.

• Additionally, many European political parties favor a compromise with Moscow, complicating the continent’s unified stance.

The Economic and Security Challenges for India

• The return of war to Europe has introduced multiple economic challenges for India and has complicated its security landscape.
• While India’s relationship with Russia is under scrutiny in the West, Beijing’s growing ties with Moscow and its strategic moves into Europe add new uncertainties to India’s security calculations.
• Despite these challenges, India has not dismissed the Ukraine conflict as a distant issue. Prime Minister Modi’s recent visit to Moscow and his planned trip to Kyiv offer a chance to intensify India’s peace diplomacy in Ukraine.

The Strategic Importance of Peace Diplomacy

• While some analysts argue that the Ukraine war is not ready for resolution, with both Moscow and Kyiv entrenched in their positions, investing in peace efforts could be beneficial for India.
• Supporting the peace process, even in a limited capacity, aligns with India’s long-term interests by reducing conflict between Russia and India’s new partners in the West.
• Historically, China has been the main beneficiary of conflicts between Russia and the West, making it crucial for India to support de-escalation efforts.
• Moreover, Delhi’s peace diplomacy in Ukraine is a crucial step towards re-engaging with European security. It marks the end of a long Indo-European geopolitical holiday and reflects a strategic re-engagement with Europe.
• During the colonial era, Indian princes exploited European rivalries to secure their freedom of action, and Indian nationalists collaborated with European powers to oppose British rule.
• The Cold War and post-Cold War eras saw a steady decline in India’s strategic engagement with Europe, but the current conflict underscores the importance of rebuilding these ties.

Conclusion

• As Asian powers like China, Japan, and South Korea actively involve themselves in European security, India has even higher stakes in European geopolitics.
• Modi’s visit to Ukraine should be viewed as a strategic move to reconfigure India’s approach to European security, ensuring that India remains an active player in shaping the future of the international order.

About the India- Ukraine Relationship:

India recognized Ukraine as a sovereign nation in 1991 and initiated diplomatic ties in 1992, marking the beginning of their bilateral relations. In the realm of commerce, India was Ukraine’s largest export destination in the Asia-Pacific region in 2020, and the fifth largest globally. However, the bilateral trade volume dipped to $2.58 billion in 2022 from $3.386 billion in 2021. Culturally and educationally, India’s influence in Ukraine is marked by its soft power, including dances, yoga, philosophy, Ayurveda, and spirituality. India extends various training programs to Ukraine under the ITEC, ICCR scholarship, and Kendriya Hindi Sansthan Scholarship program, covering various fields of study in prestigious Indian institutions. The Indian diaspora in Ukraine, primarily working in pharmaceuticals, IT, engineering, medicine, and education, is actively engaged through the ‘India Club’ founded in 2001. Ukraine is also a favoured destination for Indian students for medical education, with about 18,000 Indian students there before the conflict.

Practice Question:  How can Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine catalyze a reconfiguration of India’s approach to European security, and what are the potential economic and strategic benefits and challenges associated with such a re-engagement? (250 words/15 m)

2. The not young

(Source: Indian Express; Section: The Ideas Page; Page: 11)

Topic: GS2 – Social Justice – Vulnerable Sections

Context:

The article discusses India’s ageing population, highlighting the increasing proportion of older persons due to rising life expectancy. It underscores the rapidity of ageing in India compared to the West and the associated challenges, including inadequate social protection, pensions, and health and social care services.

The Ageing Population in India

• Much of the public discourse on Indian demographics emphasizes the youth bulge and the challenge of harnessing the “demographic dividend.”
• However, insufficient attention is given to India’s ageing population, which is increasing due to rising life expectancy.
• Projections indicate that the proportion of older persons will rise from 8.6% in 2011 to 20.8% by 2050.
• This demographic shift varies across states, with southern states and some northern states like Himachal Pradesh and Punjab showing higher elderly populations than the national average, a gap expected to widen by 2036.

Rapid Ageing in Asia vs. the West

• A significant feature of East and South Asian societies is the rapid pace of ageing compared to Western countries.
• The increase in the proportion of older persons observed over a century in the West has occurred in just 20-30 years in South and East Asia.
• This rapid transition poses challenges, especially for middle and low-middle-income countries, due to inadequate social protection for the elderly, including pensions and access to health and social care services.
• The spread of nuclear families further complicates the situation.

Policy Responses in East and South East Asia

• Several East Asian countries have recognized the reality of an ageing population and have developed policies to address it.
• They have integrated health and social care through financial investments, including various insurance schemes, and have strengthened community-level institutions.
• In contrast, India lacks universal public pension schemes, health insurance, or social-care provisioning, with some schemes targeted only at older persons below the poverty line.
• Macro data and micro studies reveal inequalities in the availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability of services needed by older persons.

Understanding the Needs of Older Persons

• There is a need to understand the felt needs of older persons from the demand side and assess the supply side in terms of social protection, insurance schemes, and health and social-care institutions.
• The fragmented landscape of financing and provisioning of required services necessitates defining the ecosystem of care to guide policy planning.

Health Challenges for the Elderly

• The Longitudinal Ageing Survey in India (LASI) shows that those above 60 years suffer from multiple morbidities due to non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, and cardiovascular conditions.
• The survey highlights variations in the social determinants of health and well-being of older persons, including geographical location, class, caste, gender, work, and pensions.
• A large proportion of older persons, especially those working in the unorganized sector, are ineligible for pensions or other forms of income support.

Rural vs. Urban Elderly

• While the proportion of older persons is higher in rural areas compared to urban areas, it is often assumed that the former fare better due to family and community support.
• However, the Helpage India Report 2024, “Ageing in India: Exploring Preparedness and Response to Care Challenges,” highlights gaps in access to financial security, health, and social care across 10 states and 20 cities.
• The findings reveal poor coverage of social pensions, largely skewed to the middle classes in government service, leading to financial insecurity among older persons who depend on family support.
• Access to government health insurance like Ayushman Bharat is limited to those below the poverty line, while other programs like CGHS and ESIS cover only government employees and those in the organized sector.

Challenges in Health and Social Care Provisioning

• Both the LASI survey and the Helpage India Report highlight the burden of multiple morbidities due to one or more non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
• As the disease burden increases with age, the ability to manage daily activities reduces, requiring both physical and emotional support, often provided by family members.
• In urban areas, changes in family structure mean the stress of caregiving falls on women. When adult children migrate for work, older persons often live alone.

Socioeconomic Disparities in Elderly Care

• Middle-class families can generally afford hired domestic help for elderly care, including nursing care.
• However, institutional support for retirement communities and long-term care is poorly developed in India across the public, private, and non-profit sectors.
• The upper-middle class and the rich can access newly emerging retirement communities offering a range of services, but the lower-middle class and the urban and rural poor face acute challenges.

Policy Implications and the Need for Action

• Public policy must address the multiple axes of inequalities in access to financial security, health, and social care for older persons.
• As India becomes an ageing society, significant gaps in access to pensions, health services, and social care need to be addressed.
• Even as the country seeks to capitalize on the “demographic dividend,” attention must be paid to healthy ageing to ensure comprehensive support for the elderly.

Practice Question:  With India’s ageing population on the rise, what are the key challenges and policy measures needed to ensure adequate social security, health care, and social support for older persons? Discuss the role of both public and private sectors in addressing these challenges. (250 words/15 m)