14 December 2024 : The Hindu Editorial Analysis

1. Trump’s return and the South Asia outlook

(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 6)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations

Context

Donald Trump’s anticipated return to the U.S. presidency in 2025 may bring continuity in U.S.-South Asia relations, particularly enhancing cooperation with India. His focus on countering China, while deprioritizing democracy and human rights, could create opportunities and challenges for regional stability. South Asian nations must navigate these dynamics amid global power shifts.

Donald Trump’s Return and Its Implications for South Asia

• In January 2025, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States.
• His re-election has sparked curiosity and “nervousness” globally but is expected to provide continuity in South Asia.
• Trump’s leadership style and focus on great power politics may bring new opportunities and challenges for the region.

Factors Shaping U.S.-India Relations

• India and the U.S. have enjoyed a steadily improving relationship since the early 2000s, with India recognized as a net-security provider in 2009.
• Under the Biden administration, the U.S. worked to strengthen India’s role in countering China in South Asia through its Indo-Pacific strategy.
• Collaborative efforts included the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) projects in Nepal and aiding Sri Lanka during its economic crisis.
• A shared vision for the region was furthered as the U.S. reduced engagement with Pakistan after its Afghanistan withdrawal.

Divergences in the Relationship

• India’s collaboration with the U.S. aims to counter China and offer alternative development models.
• The Biden administration’s focus on human rights and democracy caused friction.
  • U.S. sanctions on Bangladesh and Myanmar nudged them closer to China.
  • U.S. scrutiny of Indian firms collaborating with Russia hindered Indian projects in Sri Lanka.

Trump’s Likely Policy Directions

• Trump’s ideology emphasizes burden-sharing, reciprocity, and competing with China.
• His return is expected to reduce irritants in the U.S.-India relationship, with less focus on democracy and human rights.
• The U.S. may support India’s regional leadership with supplementary assistance, minimizing divergences.

South Asia Under Trump 2.0

• Trump’s foreign policy is expected to prioritize capacity-building, development assistance, and defence cooperation.
• This approach would benefit nations like Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and even the Taliban, though the extent of U.S. engagement remains uncertain.
• Bangladesh may face challenges due to reduced U.S. assistance during its political transition.

Implications of Trump’s China Policy

• Trump’s confrontational stance towards China could exert more pressure on South Asian countries, limiting their ability to balance great powers.
• South Asia’s politicization and ambiguity on investments and agreements could lead to increased U.S. demands for reciprocity.
• Trump’s potential success in resolving global crises like the Russia-Ukraine war and West Asia tensions may ease food and fuel inflation in the region.

Conclusion: Opportunities and Challenges

• Trump’s second term is likely to enhance U.S.-India cooperation in South Asia while introducing challenges from his leadership style.
• The broader structural shifts under Trump’s presidency will test South Asian countries’ ability to navigate relations with the U.S., India, and China.

Practice Question:  How can a shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities toward countering China influence South Asia’s geopolitics? Discuss the opportunities and challenges for India. (150 Words /10 marks)