7 October 2024 : The Hindu Editorial Analysis
1. A three-tier war in West Asia with no endgame
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)
| Topic: GS2 – International Relations |
| Context |
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Introduction: Changing Realities in West Asia
- In October 2023, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan commented that the Middle East was quieter than it had been for decades, despite the ongoing tensions in the region.
- However, just a few days later, Hamas launched a major attack on Israel, resulting in severe casualties and hostages, leading to renewed conflict.
- One year later, the region is deadlier than it has been in decades, contradicting the previously optimistic narrative of stability.
The American Perspective on West Asia Stability
- The American Perspective was shaped by recent developments like the Abraham Accords (2020), which signalled a new era of Arab-Israel partnership, and Saudi Arabia’s moves to normalise ties with Israel.
- Additionally, the announcement of an economic corridor linking India to Europe via the Middle East also bolstered the perception of progress.
- However, the Palestinian issue was overlooked, which ultimately derailed this vision.
Israel’s Current War: The “Octopus Doctrine”
- Israel is now engaged in a three-tier war, aiming to destroy Hamas, push Hezbollah back, and weaken Iran.
- Tier One: The war in Gaza is focused on destroying Hamas and securing the release of hostages. However, these goals remain unmet after 12 months of fighting, with over 41,000 Palestinians killed and the entire population of Gaza displaced.
- Tier Two: In northern Israel, Hezbollah continues to launch attacks despite Israel’s retaliation, undermining Israeli efforts to create a stable border.
- Tier Three: At the regional level, Israel is attempting to weaken Iran through direct military actions. Iran’s influence is seen through its support of militias like Hamas and Hezbollah, and Israel is trying to degrade these tentacles while targeting the “head of the octopus” — Iran itself.
Hezbollah and the Limits of Decapitation
- Israel’s recent killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah was a major setback for the group.
- Yet history has shown that decapitation does not eliminate militias like Hezbollah or Hamas.
- Hezbollah continues to launch attacks, and Israel faces significant challenges in achieving its objectives in Lebanon.
- Attempts to weaken Hezbollah or replace its leadership may not lead to Israel’s desired outcomes, as past experience has shown that militias can endure and continue to grow despite leadership losses.
The Iran Factor
- Israel has demonstrated its ability to carry out attacks deep inside Iran. However, it remains unclear whether such strikes will deter Iran from its regional objectives or from supporting allied militias.
- A “shooting match” between Iran and Israel could further destabilise the region, potentially prompting Iran to alter its nuclear policy.
- Israel lacks a clear strategy for Iran, especially without a regime change in Tehran.
Escalation and Conflict Loop
- Israel is caught in an escalation loop with no clear path to a decisive victory.
- The escalation of the conflict and expanding the war to new fronts have not yielded Israel’s desired outcomes.
- For any lasting stability in West Asia, a ceasefire in Gaza is essential, along with addressing the Palestinian question.
- However, Israel is currently more focused on reshaping the region to its advantage rather than pursuing a peace process.
Conclusion
- The last country that attempted to reshape West Asia was the United States, and it ultimately failed to achieve lasting peace or stability.
- Israel’s efforts may face a similar fate if it continues to disregard the central issues and focuses only on military escalation.
| Practice Question: Discuss the implications of the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict for regional stability in West Asia, considering the role of non-state actors and external interventions. (150 Words /10 marks) |
2. Maoists must abandon armed struggle and enter the democratic process
(Source – The Hindu, International Edition – Page No. – 8)
| Topic: GS2 – Internal Security – Role of external state and non-state actors. |
| Context |
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Intensified Security Actions
- The recent attacks were a result of coordinated actions by paramilitary forces and police, with intensified efforts following significant Maoist attacks in recent years.
- Despite losing much of their clout and presence across jungles in central and eastern India, Maoists still pose a threat in places where they remain active.
- The Union Home Ministry has been fully supportive of the intensified campaigns, resulting in multiple surrenders by Maoists.
Tribal Alienation and Decline in Support
- The setbacks to the Maoists would not have been possible without the lack of adherence to their cause by the tribal people in India’s remotest areas, where they have conducted their guerrilla struggle.
- After years of putting tribal people in harm’s way, the Maoists are now facing fatigue and alienation from these communities.
- Tribal people, once a key source of support, are now distancing themselves from the insurgency due to the hardships and risks it has brought to their lives.
Problems with Maoist Ideology and Practice
- There are inherent problems with the Maoist theory and political practice that suggest the insurgency was always likely to weaken.
- Similar Maoist insurgencies in countries such as Peru, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Colombia have also failed.
- The Indian Maoists’ over-dependence on militarism and the neglect of political-ideological work led to a spiral of violence, alienating potential supporters, particularly among the poor tribal population.
Failure to Adapt to Indian Reality
- The Maoists’ adherence to an anachronistic ideology, resembling 1920s China, failed to resonate in a diverse country like India, where the political system and terrain differ significantly.
- They also failed to recognize the resilience of electoral democratic institutions and the nature of the Indian state.
- Despite the flaws within Indian democracy, the Maoists did not utilise the opportunities available within the system, leading to further setbacks.
Conclusion
- The decline of the Maoist insurgency highlights the limitations of relying solely on militarism and outdated ideologies.
- The movement’s failure to adapt to India’s democratic context has further alienated tribal supporters.
- To truly represent tribal interests, the Maoists must abandon violence and embrace democratic engagement.
| PYQ: Naxalism is a social, economic and developmental issue manifesting as a violent internal security threat. In this context, discuss the emerging issues and suggest a multilayered strategy to tackle the menace of Naxalism. (250 Words /15 marks) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-3 2022) |
| Practice Question: Discuss the key factors leading to the decline of the Maoist insurgency in India. How can the government further ensure the effective integration of tribal communities into the democratic process? (250 Words /15 marks) |
