Understanding the patterns of population distribution is one of the key areas of study in Human geography. In this chapter, we shall study the basics of Population dynamics and then in the later chapters we shall study the impact of migration and settlement patterns of population.

Density of Population:

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The density of Population is the ratio of Population to the area. It is the number of people living per square km. It helps in getting a better understanding of the spatial distribution of population in relation to land.

Population density of India:

India has one of the highest population densities on earth. It has just 2.4% of the world’s land but holds more than one out of every six humans. India’s population density is currently 436(now) which has increased from 420(2011) and 313(2001);

One of the few other high-density countries include Bangladesh at 1222 persons per sq. km. and Japan at 349;

The following map shows the population density estimates of the world. Here it is very clear that the Ganga plains are one of the densest regions of the world, holding regions with a density even greater than 1500 persons per sq. km.

To get a better insight into the human-land ratio in terms of pressure of population on total cultivable land, the physiological and the agricultural densities should be found out which are significant for a country like India having a large agricultural population.

Within India Bihar (1102) and West Bengal (1029) have the highest population density, followed by Kerala (859), UP (828) and Tamil Nadu (555); While Arunachal Pradesh (17) and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (46) have the lowest population density;

India has held one of the highest population densities on earth throughout human history, due to its fertile land and huge agricultural output. We shall study the factors that affect the population distribution in detail in the Human settlement chapter.

POPULATION GROWTH:

Population Growth or population change refers to the change in number of inhabitants of a territory during a specific period. This population change is expressed in percentages.

It has two components:

Natural growth: analysed by assessing the crude birth and death rates.
Induced component: Explained by the volume of inward and outward movement of people in any given area.

Natural Growth of Population:

This is the population increase by the difference between births and deaths in a particular region between two points in time.

Natural Growth = Births – Deaths

The following two identities are important in understanding the natural growth of the population.

Crude birth Rate (CBR):

Bi = live births during the year; P = Mid-year population of the area.

Crude Death Rate (CDR):

D = Number of deaths; P = Estimated mid-year population of that year.

Other Important Definitions

Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years.
Death rate: deaths per 1,000 individuals per year
Infant mortality: the number of deaths of children under one year of age, expressed per 1,000 live births.
Child mortality rate: the number of deaths of children under five years of age, expressed per 1,000 live births.

Impact of Migration on Population Growth:

Migration: Positive Growth of Population happens when the birth rate is more than the death rate between two points in time or when people from other countries migrate permanently to a region.

Actual Growth of Population:

Births – Deaths + In Migration – Out

Negative Growth of Population: If the population decreases between two points of time it is known as negative growth of population. It occurs when the birth rate falls below the death rate or people migrate to other countries.

Fertility Rate:

The fertility rate at a given age is the number of children born alive to women of that age during the year as a proportion of the average annual population of women of the same age.

The fertility rate impacts how the population grows. If the fertility rate is regularly higher then the population would keep on growing.
In this context, the total fertility rate is an important indicator of population growth.

Total Fertility Rate

The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime.

For example, if on average, each woman in the country gives birth to 3 kids, then the TFR would be 3. In such a case, essentially the population would increase by a factor of 1.5 after every generation.

Replacement-level fertility:

According to the UN Population Division, a TFR of about 2.1 children per woman is called replacement-level fertility. If replacement level fertility is sustained over a sufficiently long period, each generation will exactly replace itself.

Replacement ratio of TFR: India has achieved a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.0, dropping further from the figure of 2.2 during NFHS-4, indicating that India has contained the population explosion. In India, the urban TFR is 1.6 and rural TFR is 2.1.

TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH

Before the evolution of agriculture, the world population was a mere 8Million. It started gradually increasing after the evolution of agriculture around 10,000 years ago. By the 1st century AD, it was 30 Crore.

Before the Industrial Revolution, the world population largely remained in equilibrium and increased at a very low pace, increasing to 550Million in 1750.

It then exploded after the Industrial Revolution. It took a million years to cross the 1 billion mark, But it took just 10 years (between 2012 to 2022) to reach from 7bn to 8bn. It looks like the growth of the human population will never end.

Period	Population(in Million)	Time taken in doubling
10000 BC	5 million
1650 AD	500	1500 years
1850 AD	1000	200 years
1930 AD	2000	80 years
1975 AD	4000	45 years
2012 AD	8,000	37 years

Source: Fundamentals of Human Geography, NCERT

Population Bomb

Should we be worried? Is this growth sustainable? Are there resources enough to sustain this population? These are some very worrisome questions that were asked by early demographers.

Thomas Malthus, for example, propounded the Population Bomb Theory in 1793. He stated that the number of people would increase faster than the food supply. He realised that the population in his time was growing exponentially, but the food supply was growing only arithmetically.

He was sure that any further increase would result in a population crash caused by famine, disease and war. The preventive checks are better than the physical checks.

However, the world population grew much beyond the imagination and sustained. Today, the population has grown eight times his estimate.

But in the context of Climate change and rapid depletion of resources how long the population can grow? To understand this, we need to know how population transition takes place in every economy.

The Demographic Cycle:

The theory tells us that the population of any region changes from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths as any society progresses from rural agrarian and illiterate to urban industrial and literate society.

These changes occur in stages which are collectively known as the demographic cycle.

1^st Stage: In the beginning, every society experienced high birth and mortality rates. It means that many kids are born, but most die, and people reproduce more to compensate for the deaths due to epidemics and variable food supply. Population growth in this stage is slow. Most people are engaged in agriculture and have large families. All countries were here 200 years ago.
2^nd Stage: The birth rate remains high at the beginning of the 2nd stage, however, the mortality rate gradually declines due to improved sanitation and health conditions. From this point forward, the net addition in population is high.
3^rd Stage: With better lifestyles, the age of marriage gets delayed and fertility rates gradually decline. Thus, the Birth rate declines too, we call this the 3^rd stage. However, due to the lower death rate, the population still keeps on increasing.
4^th stage: both fertility and mortality remain considerably low. The population is either stable or grows very slowly. The society becomes urbanised, literate, and has technical know-how and deliberately controls family size.

Understanding population growth through fertility rates:

Let’s understand the same increase in population based on fertility rate.

Stage 1: Till the 1800s, the fertility rate was around 7-8. However, most children die due to diseases and malnutrition before reaching reproductive age. It was a tragic situation. “We were not living in ecological balance with nature, we were dying in ecological balance with nature”.

Stage 2: With better sanitation and food production, we started saving children. Even when the fertility rates declined, the population started growing as death rates were low. For every 5 children born to a woman, 4 survive, doubling the population after each generation.

Stage 3: With better employment and educational opportunities, the age of marriage gets delayed, and the cost of raising kids eventually increases. Thus, the fertility rate declines to reach the replacement level. The number of children stops increasing (a situation referred to as the “peak Child”). However, the population still keeps on growing as people keep on living longer. The world is currently at this stage, the number of children is not growing but the population is still growing.

Stage 4: Eventually an equilibrium is reached, and the number of deaths matches the number of births each year. Thus, the population growth stabilises.

This shows that human beings are extremely flexible and can adjust their fertility. Currently, China, Western Europe, Japan, Northern America and most other developed countries have already stabilised their population.

Growth of Population in India

The growth of the Indian population can be studied in 4 phases (not similar to the phases we studied above)

1901-1921: Period of stagnant or stationary phase of growth, very low growth -even negative growth. Both birth rate and death rates were high. Poor health, medical services, literacy, less food and necessities.
1921-1951: Period of steady population growth. Improvement in health and sanitation throughout the country brought down the mortality rate; better transportation and communication systems improved the distribution system. Crude birth rate remained high. Growth rate thus higher. Impressive – the backdrop of the Great Economic Depression and WWII.
Decades 1951-1981: Population explosion: rapid fall in mortality rate but high fertility rate. Average annual growth: 2.2%. Developmental activities through the centralised planning process and the economy started showing up, improving the living conditions of people at large. Consequently, high natural growth and a higher growth rate – Besides Refugees: Tibetan, Bangladeshis, Nepali, and even from Pakistan.
1981-now: The growth rate remained high, and started slowing down gradually. A downward trend of crude birth rate due to increase in mean age at marriage, improved quality of life: education of women and their inclusion in the workforce. The growth rate is still high.

The annual growth of the population in India remained at around 2.5% during 1971-2001. Currently, it is below 1%. India is set to witness a sharp slowdown in population growth in the next two decades.

The slowdown in states with historically high population growth rates, Bihar, UP, Rajasthan and Haryana is particularly noteworthy.
The growth rate in Southern states, West Bengal, Punjab, Maharashtra, Odisha, Assam and Himachal Pradesh has remained below 1% for quite some time. Kerala registers the lowest annual growth rate in India.

With such progress, it is expected that by 2060, India’s population will peak at around 1.6 bn people. We are currently unclear if the population will decrease after that or will remain stable.

Lancet Report (published in 2020): India’s population is likely to peak by 2047 at about 1.61 billion and then decline to 1.03 billion by 2100. However, were it to meet UN Sustainable Goal Development targets, the peak would be earlier due to a sharper reduction in TFR.

Regional variation in Population composition:

76% of the total population in India lives in just 10 states – UP, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka and Gujarat.
8 smaller states: Arunachal Pradesh, Goa, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Sikkim, Nagaland and Tripura and the 6 UTs (except Delhi) account for only 1.6% of India’s population.

Components of populations:

Sex Ratio

In some countries calculated as the number of males per thousand females.

In India: Number of Females per thousand males:

Definitions in India

The Sex ratio at birth is defined as the number of female births per 1000 male births.
The child sex ratio in India is defined as the number of females per thousand males in the age group 0–6 years.

The sex ratio is low (Indian formula) where, practices such as female foeticide, female infanticide and domestic violence against women are prevalent.

On average, the world population reflects a sex ratio of 990 females per 1000 males. The highest sex ratio in the world has been recorded in Latvia which is 1187 females per 1000 males. In contrast, the lowest sex ratio occurs in U.A.E. which is 468 females per 1000 males.

It is favourable to females in 139 countries and to males in 72 countries. Asia has a low sex ratio in comparison. As per the 2011 Census, the sex ratio in India is 940 females per 1000 males.

Population Pyramid:

Age-sex pyramid or age-sex structure graph of a population, referring to the distribution of the number of females and males in different age groups. In the y-axis age-based classification is done, and on the x-axis male and female populations in percentages are noted.

Shape of the Population Pyramid tells a lot about the population growth:

Expanding Population: Triangular-shaped, Wide at the base, narrow on the top; It means more children are born after each generation. For example, Nigeria.
Constant population: A Bell-shaped population pyramid, that gradually tapers towards the top, shows a constant population. It means that the number of children is not increasing after each generation. For example, Australia.
Declining Population: If a population pyramid is narrow on its base and tapered at the top, then it indicates a declining population. It means that the number of children is decreasing after each generation. Japan is currently experiencing a population contraction, and it is believed that due to the one-child policy in China, its population will get below the 1 billion people mark by the end of this century.

China’s One-Child Policy

In 1979, the Chinese government feared that its rapidly exploding population might hurt its development goals, and therefore it launched a One-Child Policy. According to this policy, couples having more than one child had to pay penalties. Over the years, the fertility rate rapidly declined from more than 7 to as low as 1.2 today.

This has created various social problems too. There have been selective abortions to have the only child as male. China will also experience severe “population ageing” in the coming years.

Sex Composition in Rural and Urban Areas:

Understanding the Rural-Urban division is necessary because rural and urban lifestyles differ from each other by a great measure. Further, occupational opportunities skew the sex ratios around the world.

For example, in Western countries, males outnumber females in rural areas and females outnumber males in urban areas – the result of the influx of females from rural areas to avail of the vast job opportunities and highly mechanised farming is largely male-employed.

In certain countries with better employment opportunities such as the UAE, the sex ratio is skewed simply because the male population from the nearby areas migrate to these countries for work.

In countries like Nepal, Pakistan and India the case is reversed. In rural areas, the participation of females in farming is fairly high.

Food for Thought

Are states like Haryana and Punjab experiencing such skewed sex ratios because of employment-related migration from states like UP and Bihar too (apart from son-meta preference)?

Salient features of the Indian population

India has the highest number of working Individuals in the world; Our dependency ratio is one of the lowest.

Dependency Ratio

It is the ratio of the dependent population (i.e. children (below 15 years of age) and elderly (above 65 years of age)) to the working population (15 to 65 years old).

Dependency Ratio = Children+Elderly / Working Population

Having a low dependency ratio generally means having a high production capacity in the economy. Therefore, from this decade onwards India would be reaping the benefits of having a large population. This is known as the Demographic Dividend.

The younger population profile for the next 2-3 decades will provide an opportunity for accelerated economic growth.

However, certain challenges to society might prevent us from reaping the benefits of Demographic dividends. To grow at a fast pace, we need to overcome these challenges.

Challenges to society:

If India’s population is not productive enough, we might face poverty and underemployment. This has the potential to disrupt the peace of the society.

Factors that impact the productivity levels include – illiteracy – particularly female literacy, school dropout rates, lower levels of skills, low intake of nutrients, high rate of maternal mortality, high rates of HIV/AIDS infection, physical and mental disability, drug abuse and alcoholism, juvenile delinquency and Crime. India needs to fight these evils to be prosperous.

Literacy:

The proportion of the literate population of a country is an indicator of its socio-economic development as it reveals the standard of living, social status of females, availability of educational facilities and policies of government. The level of economic development is both a cause and a consequence of literacy.

Literacy rate (In India) denotes the percentage of the population above 7 years of age, who can read, write and have the ability to do arithmetic calculations with understanding.

We shall study the occupational structure of the society in the coming chapters.

Recent Developments in Indian Demography:

The Economic Survey of 2018-19 throws some light on the changing demographics of India. India has entered the next stage of demographic transition. Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Bihar, UP, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and MP are above the replacement rate but are experiencing significant declines.

States with TFR below 2.1 (replacement Level):

States in the range of 1.5 to 1.7: Delhi, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra, Telangana, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh.
All southern states including Maharashtra are below 2.1
These states have more than 10% population over 59 and at most one-third population below 20.

Son “meta” preference

If we bring our attention to the sex ratio of the last child in Indian families, we find a preference for a son in a subtler form. Parents may choose to keep having children until they get the desired number of sons. This is referred to as the “Son Meta Preference” by the Economic survey.

For India, the sex ratio of the last child for first-borns is 1.82, heavily skewed in favour of boys compared with the ideal sex ratio of 1.05. This creates notionally “unwanted” girls, estimated at about 21 million.

Population growth Trajectory:

India will continue to slow rapidly over the next two decades.

The growth rate will remain less than 1% during 2021-31 and under 0.5% during 2031-41. Further, Population growth will be half during 2021-41.
States ahead in the transition would see near-zero growth rates by 2031-41. In fact, Tamil Nadu’s Population growth will start declining during 2031-41, unless offset by inward migration.
Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Jharkhand will contribute to nearly 2-3rd of the increase in India’s population. Out of these states, UP and Bihar will account for a 40% increase. Bihar will be the only state to have a population growth of 1%.

Population Aging

Although the country as a whole will enjoy the “demographic dividend” phase, some states will start transitioning to an ageing society by the 2030s.

Population in the 0-19 age bracket has already peaked due to sharp declines in TFR across the country.
The number of people in the 60 years and above age bracket will continue to rise steadily, nearly doubling from 8.6% in 2011 to 16% by 2041.
The working-age population (20-59) will grow by roughly 9.7 million per year during 2021-31 and 4.2 million per year in 2031-41. And then it will peak around 2041 when its share in population is expected to be 59%.
Even states in earlier stages of demographic transition, such as Bihar, UP, Jharkhand, MP etc. would see a significant decline in the share of the young population.
India’s Age structure would resemble that of China and Thailand.

Implications on Working Age:

India’s labour force participation rate for the age group 15-59 years is around 53% (80% for males and 25% for females).
Additional jobs required (depending on current trajectory): 9.7 Million/year during 2021-31 and 4.2 Million/year during 2031-41.
Evolution of the working-age population:
- Decline in 11 out of 22 major states during 2031-41: Punjab, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Himachal Pradesh.
- States lagging in demographic transition: Bihar, UP, MP and Raj: working age population would rise.

Rising Elderly Population in the South

According to the India Ageing Report 2023, the elderly population in states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Kerala will see a dramatic rise by 2036, contrasting with slower growth in northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

For example, Kerala’s elderly population is projected to rise from 16.5% to 22.8%, while Tamil Nadu will see an increase from 13.7% to 20.8%.

Reason: Southern states achieved lower fertility rates earlier than northern states, leading to an ageing population. For example, Andhra Pradesh’s fertility rate stands at 1.5, below the national average of 2.

The India Ageing Report 2023 is prepared by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS).

Policy implications of population Aging

For Aging Population:

The government needs to make the following provisions for our growing elderly population:

Provision of health care and old-age care (geriatric care): The rising population over the next two decades will sharply reduce the per capita availability of hospital beds in India across all major states. States with high population growth are also the ones with the lowest per capita availability of hospital beds.
Access to retirement-related financial services and Public pension funding,
Income tax revenues would be lower (fewer working hands). There needs to be a provision for substitute revenue sources.
Labour force and labour participation rates would decline. This means we need to automate our industry and skill our workforce.
The Retirement age would have to be increased. India’s healthy life expectancy at the age of 60 is 12.9 years. (12.5 years for males and 13.3 years for females), i.e. a person is expected to live 13 more years of healthy life at the age of 60. We can increase the age of retirement, to improve labour force availability and reduce pressure on pension funding. Germany, France and the US have already increased their retirement age (to 65-67).
Change in the School structure: As the number of kids declines, we would need to focus on quality rather than quantity.
Delimitation and Political Representation: The ageing population in southern states raises fears of losing political representation, i.e. losing parliamentary seats. For instance, Tamil Nadu could see its Lok Sabha seats fall from 39 to 30, while northern states might gain representation due to their higher population growth.

Pro Natal Policies

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister recently suggested to incentivize having more children mirrors failed policies seen globally.

Pro-natalist measures in countries like Japan, China, and France have largely been ineffective, as prosperity and education tend to lead to lower birth rates.
Experts suggest that migration and boosting economic productivity are more viable solutions than trying to reverse the ageing trend through incentives.

Elementary schools: 5-14.

Implication 1: The number of elementary school-going children has already begun declining in India and across all major states except J&K.

The size of the 5-14-year population will drop sharply in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Punjab, Andhra and Karnataka by 2041.
It will decline even in UP, Bihar, Rajasthan and MP.
All over India: decline by 18.4% between 2021 and 2041.

Implication 2: The number of schools per capita of 5-14 years population and school enrolment at the national and state level will rise significantly.

States of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Andhra and MP have more than 40% of elementary schools with fewer than 50 students enrolled. Similar trends were observed in Chhattisgarh, Assam and Odisha with a large number of schools per capita and small school sizes.
The time may soon come in many states to consolidate/merge elementary schools to keep the schools financially viable. The number of kids available in the area varies widely according to the terrain and urban clustering.

We need to reach the Optimal School Size and an education policy appropriate to these sizes.

Population Composition:

Distinct field of study within population geography with a vast coverage of analysis of age and sex, place of residence, ethnic characteristics, tribes, language, religion, marital status, literacy and education, occupational characteristics, etc.

We shall cover the salient aspects of population composition in India in the Indian Society Textbook. The occupational composition of the Indian Population is covered in the later chapters of this book.