Population issues refer to the challenges and complexities arising from changes in population size, distribution, and demographic structure. The global population continues to grow unevenly across regions, posing unique problems for both developed and developing countries.

While some nations face population explosion with excessive pressure on resources and infrastructure, others struggle with population decline, ageing populations and shrinking workforces.

Population issues, when left unmanaged, can escalate into a demographic disaster, which is a severe and often irreversible population imbalance that significantly disrupts a country’s economy, social structures, and long-term development. This phenomenon is typically driven by declining birth rates, ageing populations and low fertility, combined with migration trends and workforce depletion.

Debunking Myths About Population Growth

There are several myths and misconceptions surrounding population growth. These myths can lead to misunderstandings about the causes and consequences of population growth and hinder the development of effective policies. Here are some common myths and their debunking:

1. Myth: Population Growth Will Cause Resource Exhaustion

Fact: The real issue lies in consumption patterns and waste, not just population size. Efficient resource management, sustainability and technology can support larger populations as we have been experiencing today having a huge world population of over 8 Billion people. The problem is unequal access and misuse of resources rather than sheer numbers of people.

• Myth: We Are Reaching Earth’s ‘Carrying Capacity’

Fact: Many experts argue that technological innovation and sustainable practices can increase Earth’s carrying capacity. Advances in agriculture, renewable energy and waste reduction have proven that proper management can support growing populations without depleting resources, which totally contradicts the Malthusian theory as we have studied above.

• Myth: Global Population is Growing Out of Control

Fact: Population growth rates are actually declining worldwide, which is clear from the graph shown above. Improved healthcare, education and family planning have slowed growth. Many developed nations now face population stagnation or decline, leading to ageing populations and workforce shortages.

• Myth: Population Control is Only About Reducing Birth Rates

Fact: True population control focuses on quality of life by providing healthcare, education, and access to sustainable resources. It empowers informed family planning decisions rather than solely limiting births.

Population growth is a double-edged sword for India, offering opportunities for economic growth while presenting significant challenges in resource management, employment and public services. A balanced approach with effective policies is essential for sustainable development.

Fertility Rate  

The fertility rate is a demographic measure that indicates the average number of children born to women of reproductive age (typically 15-49 years) in a given population. It is often used to assess population growth and can provide insights into social, economic and health conditions within a society.

The most common fertility rate is the total fertility rate (TFR), which estimates the number of children a woman would have over her lifetime, assuming current birth rates remain unchanged.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

TFR is the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime during reproductive age (15-49 years).

• The replacement level of fertility is around 2.1 children per woman, which is the level needed to keep the population stable without immigration.
• If the one child is above 2.1, the population grows. If it is below 2.1, the population shrinks unless there’s a significant influx of immigrants.

High Fertility Rate

In regions with a high TFR, such as many sub-Saharan African countries (e.g., Niger, Chad), there are more births than deaths, resulting in rapid population growth.

These areas often experience a youthful population with a large proportion of children, which can put pressure on healthcare systems, education, and job markets.

Example: In Niger, the TFR is around 7 children per woman, leading to an extremely young population and high population growth.

Low Fertility Rate

Countries with low fertility rates, such as Japan, Germany, or Italy, are seeing slower population growth, and in some cases, population decline.

These nations often have ageing populations, where the number of elderly people exceeds the number of younger people entering the workforce. This results in labour shortages and increased pressure on social support systems.

Example: Japan’s TFR has been around 1.4 children per woman, contributing to an ageing society and shrinking workforce.

Issues Associated with Fertility Rate

By understanding fertility rates, we gain insight into the broader patterns of human development, economic shifts and societal changes, making it a crucial factor in the study of population dynamics.

Fertility trends globally have been declining, with the average number of children per woman dropping from 4.7 in the 1950s to around 2.3 today.

Fertility Trends in India

• Declining TFR: India’s TFR reduced from 2.2 (NFHS-4, 2015–16) to 2.0 (NFHS-5, 2019–21).
• Regional Variations: Higher fertility in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
  • Replacement or below-replacement fertility in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu
• Urban vs. Rural: TFR is lower in urban areas compared to rural areas.

The process unfolded as societies moved from high fertility rates to stabilization or decline due to urbanization, better health systems and evolving cultural norms.

Population Ageing

Population ageing refers to the increasing proportion of older individuals in the total population. This demographic shift occurs due to declining fertility rates, increased life expectancy, and advancements in healthcare.

In the context of India, population ageing presents both challenges and opportunities, with significant implications for the economy, healthcare, and social security systems.

• Global Perspective: By 2050, 16% of the world’s population is projected to be above 65 years (UN World Population Ageing Report).
• Indian Scenario: India’s elderly population (60+ years) is expected to rise from 138 million in 2021 to 319 million by 2050. The elderly will account for 20% of the total population by 2050 (UNFPA India Report).

Causes of Population Ageing

1. Declining Fertility Rates: Reduced fertility leads to fewer young people in the population.
2. Increased Life Expectancy: Advances in healthcare, nutrition, and living standards extend life expectancy.
3. Improved Healthcare Infrastructure: Reduced mortality rates, particularly in older populations.

Opportunities from Population Ageing

1. Silver Economy: Emergence of industries and services catering to the elderly, such as healthcare, wellness and senior living.
2. Experience and Wisdom: Utilization of the elderly’s knowledge and experience for mentorship and advisory roles.
3. Healthcare Innovations: Development of advanced technologies for geriatric care and telemedicine.
4. Job Creation: Growing demand for caregivers, healthcare professionals, and age-friendly infrastructure developers.

Implications of Population Ageing

1. Labour Force Reduction: A shrinking working-age population hampers productivity and economic growth.
2. Increased Dependency Ratio: A higher ratio of elderly dependents puts pressure on the working population.
3. Pension Burden: Rising demand for pensions and retirement benefits strains government finances.
4. Healthcare Costs: Growing healthcare expenses are needed to manage age-related illnesses like arthritis, dementia, and cardiovascular diseases.
5. Elderly Care Challenges: The shift from joint families to nuclear families reduces traditional support systems for the elderly.
6. Social Isolation: Increased loneliness and mental health issues among the elderly due to reduced family interaction.

Population decline

Population decline refers to the reduction in the total number of people in a region or country over a specific period. It can have significant social, economic and geopolitical implications.

Causes of Population Decline

1. Low Fertility Rates
2. Below Replacement Level: Fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman lead to fewer births.
3. Urbanization: Preference for smaller families in urban areas.
4. Women’s Empowerment: Increased education and workforce participation lead to delayed marriages and fewer children.
   1. Ageing Population: High life expectancy combined with low birth rates leads to a higher proportion of elderly individuals.
5. Results in natural population decline as deaths exceed births.
   1. Migration
6. Emigration: Large-scale migration of working-age individuals to other countries reduces the population in their home country.
7. Brain Drain: Skilled workers leaving for better opportunities elsewhere.
   1. Economic Factors: The high cost of living and raising children discourages larger families.
8. Unemployment or economic downturns lead to a preference for smaller family sizes.
   1. Social and Cultural Changes: Changing lifestyles, increased focus on career goals, and declining importance of traditional family structures.
   1. Health Crises: Pandemics, diseases, and insufficient healthcare can result in high mortality rates.

Impacts of Population Decline

1. Labour Shortages: A decline in the working-age population hampers industries, productivity, and economic growth.
2. Reduced Consumption: Lower demand for goods and services affects businesses and economic activity.
3. Decline in Innovation: Fewer young people may result in reduced creativity, technological progress, and entrepreneurship.
4. Ageing Society: A higher dependency ratio increases the burden on a smaller working population to support the elderly.
5. Healthcare Challenges: Greater demand for geriatric care and healthcare services for age-related conditions.
6. Geopolitical and Military Impacts: Reduced global influence, challenges in military recruitment, and potential migration-related tensions.

Population decline is a multifaceted issue with significant implications for a country’s economy, society and global standing.

While it presents challenges, it also offers opportunities to adopt innovative policies and technologies for a sustainable future. Effective measures tailored to the specific needs of affected regions are crucial to mitigate its adverse effects.

Demographic Dividend

The demographic dividend refers to the economic growth potential that arises from changes in a country’s age structure, primarily when the working-age population (15–64 years) becomes larger than the dependent population (children and elderly).

Characteristics of Demographic Dividend

1. Declining Dependency Ratio: More people in the working-age group relative to dependents.
2. Youthful Workforce: A surge in the population entering the labour market.
3. Economic Benefits: Increased savings and investments.
   • Higher productivity due to a larger workforce.
4. Limited Timeframe: The dividend phase lasts for a few decades, after which the population ages.

Phases of Demographic Transition

1. High Birth and Death Rates: Low growth; high dependency ratio.
2. Declining Death Rates: Population growth accelerates due to high birth rates.
3. Declining Birth Rates: Growth slows; working-age population expands.
4. Ageing Population: The dependency ratio increases again.

India is currently in the third phase, offering a unique window of opportunity for leveraging its demographic dividend.

Opportunities Provided by Demographic Dividend

1. Economic Growth: A larger workforce can boost GDP through increased productivity.
2. Savings and Investments: Higher income leads to greater savings, fuelling investments in infrastructure and industry.
3. Innovation and Entrepreneurship: A young and dynamic workforce drives technological advancements and startups.
4. Global Workforce Supply: India can supply skilled labour to ageing economies globally.
5. Market Expansion: A growing middle class leads to increased domestic demand.

Challenges in Leveraging Demographic Dividend

1. Unemployment: Need for 10–12 million jobs annually to match workforce growth.
2. Skill Mismatch: Poor alignment between education and industry requirements.
3. Gender Inequality: Low female labour force participation (23% in 2022).
4. Regional Disparities: States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are ageing, while northern states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh still have high fertility rates.
5. Infrastructure Deficiency: Overcrowded cities, inadequate healthcare, and education facilities.
6. Informal Economy: High reliance on informal jobs with low wages and poor working conditions.

Steps Taken by India to Harness the Demographic Dividend

1. Skilling and Entrepreneurship Initiatives: Programs like the Skill India Mission enhance youth employability through skill development, while schemes like Startup India promote entrepreneurship, creating job opportunities and driving economic growth.
2. Youth Employment Programs: Programs like the National Youth Policy and National Employment Service aim to increase youth employment and integrate them into the labour market.
3. Education Reforms: Implementation of the Right to Education Act (RTE) to improve access to quality education, ensuring a well-educated workforce for the future.
4. Healthcare for Youth: Improving healthcare facilities and access, especially through schemes like the National Health Mission, to enhance the health and productivity of young people.
5. Labour Market Reforms: Introducing labour law reforms to make the labour market more flexible and conducive to youth employment, such as simplifying hiring and firing procedures.
6. Infrastructure Development: Investments in infrastructure, including transportation and urban development, which create job opportunities and facilitate the mobility of the workforce.

India’s demographic dividend offers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for economic and social transformation.

However, harnessing this potential requires concerted efforts in education, skill development, job creation, and inclusive growth. Effective policies and governance will determine whether India reaps the benefits of this demographic advantage or faces challenges due to unutilized human capital.

Related FAQs of ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH POPULATION