India and Maldives share ethnic, cultural, religious, linguistic and commercial links steeped in antiquity. The relations have been close, cordial, multi-dimensional but mixed with several ups and downs. Indian Maldivian Bilateral relationship was formalized with the signing of the Treaty of Friendship in 1981.

After the democratic transition took place in 2008, India’s relationship with the Maldives has been strengthened with all relevant stakeholders despite the change in the governments.

Historical evolution of Indo-Maldives ties

India established diplomatic ties with the Maldives in 1965 when the British relinquished control of the islands. There was no diplomatic mission in Male before 1978 and diplomacy was conducted through the Indian High Commission in Colombo. Since 1998, India has had an ambassador representative in the islands.

We can trace the evolution of the relation as follows:

Pro India Phase

• 1978-2008: Maldivian foreign policy under President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom took a lukewarm turn towards India; he started to leverage China over India. Incidents like the assistance of India during the 1988 coup attempt led to the development of trust and long-term and cordial bilateral relations with the Maldives.
• 2008-2012: After the democratic transition took place in 2008, India’s relationship with the Maldives has been strengthened. It saw an upward swing, with President Mohamed Nasheed coming to power in 2008. In 2011, Nasheed reaffirmed his “India’s first” foreign policy.

Anti-Indian Voices

• 2013-2018: In the subsequent Maldivian regime led by President Abdullah Yameen, males seemed to further distance themselves from Western and Indian influences while strengthening ties with China.
• 2018-2023: His successor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, assumed office in 2018 and followed India’s first policy.
• 2024: A new government was formed in Maldives under President Mohammed Muizzu. He came into power with a “pro-China policy.” Maldives has been facing an economic crisis with rising debt, thus it needs funds. China can influence the policies of Maldives in response to the economic help. It can have adverse strategic implications for India.

Importance of Maldives:

India projects itself as the net security provider in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) and Maldives is strategically located in the Indian Ocean region (IOR).

• Situated at International Sea Lanes: Its situation at the hub of commercial sea lanes running through the Indian Ocean that moves traffic from the Suez Canal and the straits of Hormuz to India, Southeast Asia and East Asia (particularly the 8-degree and 1½-degree north Channels).
• Geo-economic significance: 50% of external trade passes through sea lines of communication.
• Security of Lakshadweep: Its northernmost Thuraakunu Island is just 100 kilometres from the Indian naval station in the Lakshadweep island of
• Regional cooperation: Maldives and India are member countries of the SAARC, IORA and IONS, etc.
• EEZ: Maldives India has already resolved all disputes regarding its EEZ with the Maldives through the maritime treaty of 1976. Both countries signed an MoU in 2019 to conduct joint hydrographic surveys of the EEZ of Maldives to enhance security and boost its economic utilisation. However, this project has been recently stalled.

Areas of cooperation

Economic Relations:

• India and Maldives signed a trade agreement in 1981, which provides for the export of essential commodities. India-Maldives bilateral trade crossed the $300 million mark for the first time in 2021, which further crossed the $500 million mark in 2022. India emerged as Maldives’ 2^nd largest trade partner in 2022 and the largest in 2023.
  • Export to Maldives: India exports include a variety of engineering and industrial products like drugs and pharmaceuticals, radar apparatus, rock boulders, aggregates, cement and agricultural produce like rice, spices, fruits, vegetable poultry produce etc.
  • Import from Maldives: Indian imports from the Maldives primarily comprise scrap metals
• Investment: SBI plays an important role in the nation in terms of providing loans to business establishments. Many tourist resorts and telecommunication projects have been completed following the loans from SBI.
• Line of credit (LOC): LoC agreement between Ministry of Finance, GoM and EXIM Bank of India was signed in March 2019. A  $100 supplementary LoC was signed in Oct 2022. The LOC provided by Indians used in Addu Development projects (Roads and land Reclamation), the Expansion of Maldives Industrial Fisheries Company Limited (MIFCO) facilities in Felivaru and Gemanafushi Cancer Hospital under the supervision of TATA Memorial, etc.
• An agreement on the supply of essential commodities for the 2020-2021 period was also renewed.
• Greater Male Connectivity Projects: India granted $500 million for the greater male connectivity projects to connect males to the islands of Villngili, Thilafushi, and Gulhifahu. It is the largest civilian project in Maldives and is often compared to the Sinemale Friendship Bridge being constructed in China.

• Air Bubble Agreement: both countries decided to establish an Air Bubble Agreement, a direct ferry service and submarine cable for the telecom sector.

IR/strategic cooperation:

Maldivian diplomats have received training under the IFSI (Indian Foreign Service Institute). Both the countries are members of SAARC and SASEC.

• Maldives became the latest member of the Indian Ocean Rim Association in 2018 after India pushed for its inclusion. It becomes strategically more important.
• SAGAR Initiative: the Maldives is India’s key Maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and occupies a special place in the country’s initiatives like SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region).

Military cooperation:

• Operation Cactus 1988: People’s Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE) attempted to take over the Maldives in a coup in 1988; the Indian Army saved the government in Operation Cactus.
• Training: India provides over 70% of the training requirements of the Maldivian Defence Forces (MDF).
• Bases in Maldives: India has two helicopter bases, which integrate radars and Indian Coast Guard surveillance along the Maldivian coast. India also aims to remain a net security provider to the Maldives.
• Military exercises: Ekuverin is a 14-day platoon-level joint military exercise between the Indian Army and the Maldives National Defence for counter-terrorist operations since 2009. DOSTI Exercise has been conducted between the coast guards of two countries since 1991. Other exercises are also conducted, such as Exercise Ekatha (2022), Exercise Shield for anti-narcotics and marine searches, etc.

Development Assistance and aid

India and presently working on the Construction of a water and sewerage project in 34 islands, the Reclamation of Addu Island, a port on Gulhifalfu, airport redevelopment at Hanimaadhoo, construction of a hospital and a cricket stadium at Hulhumale. Projected Completed under development assistance are Indira Gandhi Memorial Hospital, Maldives Institutes Institute of Technical Education, and National Police Academy. Other assistance includes:

• Humanitarian Aid: During the 2004 Tsunami and the water crises in 2014 under Operation Neer.
• COVID Aid: Operation Sanjeevan started to supply essential medicine (sent three consignments of Vaccines to Maldives.
• High-impact community Development schemes: Most of the development projects are being executed in Maldives as part of this scheme, which is driven by the needs of the communities. This scheme is also being implemented in other countries, including Afghanistan and Bhutan.

Cultural/People to people ties

• Historical ties: the cultural relations between India and Maldives were established in the Chola Dynasty when one of the greatest rulers, Raja Raja I, reached the northern atoll of Maldives.
• Scholarship: Maldives has been a recipient of many scholarship programs from the Indian Council of Cultural Relations (ICCR).
• Indian Community in Maldives: the Indians form the second-largest expatriate community in Maldives. There are 27000 Indian nationals in the Maldives, comprising doctors, nurses, paramedics and teachers, unskilled workers, etc. Around 25% of all teachers in the Maldives are Indians. India Culture Centre (ICC) was established for males in 2011. It conducts regular courses in Yoga, Classical Music and dance. These programs are immensely popular among Maldivians.

Tourism to Maldives:

The tourism industry contributes around 20% to Maldive’s GDP and of which Indian tourists comprise the largest share of the tourism industry

• India is the second leading source of market for the Maldives, with an 11.1% market share in Dec 2023.
• Medical tourism: India has granted just less than 10% of medical tourist visas out of 4,95,000 to Maldivians in 2017.

In 2019, the two nations signed various MOUs to develop the Addu tourism Zone in 5 islands of Addu Atoll (the southernmost Atoll of Maldives) and to set up a bottling water plant in Hoarafushi, in the northernmost Haa Alif Atoll.

Major Challenges in India-China Relations

Pro-China instance:

China opened its embassy in the Maldives only in 2011. Since then, the relations between the two countries have only deepened. The Government of Abdulla Yameen (2013-18) in the Maldives significantly deepened the country’s ties with China and adopted the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Maldives has traditionally had a pro-Indian president. For example, Ibrahim Mohammed Solih (2018-23), emphasized putting “India first” in Maldives’ foreign policy.

However, the recently elected president, Mohamed Muizzu (2023 – till now), is more tilted towards China in its foreign policy, which can be seen due to the following factors:

1. Mohamed Muizzu has chosen not to renew the hydrography agreement with India. This agreement granted India the authority to conduct hydrographic surveys of Maldivian territorial waters.
2. Muizzu has stated that his top priority is the departure of Indian military personnel from Maldives currently deployed in the Maldives to operate two ALH helicopters and a Dornier aircraft that were provided by New Delhi.
3. India Out the campaign: the “India Out” campaign led by Yamen (the opposition leader) gained momentum in 2021 when India signed an agreement with the Solih-led government to develop, support and maintain a harbour, leading to the deterioration of the relationship.
4. On January 10, 2024, Maldives signed new agreements with China while President Mohamed Muizzzu was in Beijing for his first state visit to China.
5. Increased Chinese ownership: An Amendment to the Maldivian Constitution in 2015 allowed foreigners to own land in the Maldives, provided they invested at least $1 billion in a project and reclaimed at least 70% of the land from the sea. China is the obvious beneficiary of this amendment, given China’s substantial investments in the Maldives under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In 2017, about 20% of all visitors to the Maldives were Chinese.
6. China FTA signed in 2017: In 2017, the Maldives under President Abdulla Yameen signed its first-ever Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China. This heavily favoured China.
7. Debt Trap Diplomacy: The Maldivian national Debt stands at $2.5bn dollars. It is estimated that over 40% of Maldives’ external debt is due to China.

Stalled Projects with India

Since Maldives has stopped its pro-India policy, several important projects have stalled.

1. Stalled military cooperation: Indian projects such as the Training academy for the Maldivian armed forces have been stalled.
2. Hydrographic survey of EEZ: The Maldives Cabinet decided not to renew the 2019 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with India for hydrographic surveying which expired in 2023.
   • Hydrographic Surveys Background: Three joint hydrographic surveys were conducted by the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) and the Indian Navy under the 2019 agreement.
   • Surveys aimed at updating navigational charts for enhanced navigational safety and to boost the Blue Economy of the Maldives.

Terrorism and Radicalization:

The Maldivian society is becoming radicalized with the inflow of funds from Saudi Arabia.

• Many nationals have been found fighting for the Islamic State (IS). It has allegedly sent the highest per capita foreign fighter contingent to ISIS.
• There is growing concern that the ground is being prepared for terrorist attacks on tourism-related targets.
• There is evidence that Pakistan and its notorious intelligence agencies have been radicalizing individuals from Maldives.

Lack of Independent Island Policy:

India is working towards a regional security architect under IORA and trilateral security arrangements. However, it lacks an independent policy dealing collectively with archipelagos like Seychelles, Maldives, Madagascar, and Mauritius amidst the increasing Chinese presence along these islands.

Impact of Climate change on islands in the Indian Ocean

According to current projections, by 2050, global sea levels are expected to rise by around 1 foot (0.3 meters), while by 2100, the rise could reach between 2.3 and 4 feet (0.7 to 1.2 meters) Maldives is highly vulnerable to sea level rise. A 1-meter sea level rise could cause over 80% of the country’s land to be submerged. It is believed that by 2050, 80% of the country could be rendered inhabitable due to it being in the intertidal zone.

Way Forward

• Both countries need to step back from hyper-nationalistic rhetoric and look into the broader impact on regional stability.
• International cooperation in climate change and renewable energy: India and Maldives can explore the possibility of studying the blue economy model for sustainable coastal development.
• Both the country should work on more “Mutually workable solutions”, like one that was used to enable the continued operation of Indian aviation platforms in the island nation.
• Emphasize should be given to the importance of maintaining a strong relationship, especially in a region facing several elections, to ensure cooperation and stability.