20 December 2024 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. The bridge to Moscow  

(Source: Indian Express; Section: The Editorial Page; Page: 10)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations

Context

The article highlights the pivotal role of the India-Russia relationship in stabilizing global power dynamics and fostering a balanced international order in 2025.

 Great Power Dynamics in 2025

• The foreign policy landscape of 2025 is set to be dominated by the evolving relationships among global powers.
• The U.S., under a potential new administration, might recalibrate its ties with European allies and intensify competition with China.
• Meanwhile, India is emerging as a stabilizing force, particularly in its efforts to manage relations with China and strengthen the Indo-U.S. partnership.
• However, the most significant bilateral relationship in 2025 will be between India and Russia.
• This partnership, deeply rooted in trade, technological collaboration, and strategic interests, has implications for global stability.

India-Russia Ties: A Strategic Necessity

• India and Russia share a robust partnership built on mutual dependence in critical areas such as energy trade and high-tech cooperation.
• Russia remains India’s most reliable supplier of advanced technology, filling gaps that Western nations, despite relaxed trade norms, are yet to address fully.
• For instance, while the U.S. and France are opening up to dual-use technologies, India’s long-range and undersea capabilities continue to rely heavily on Russian support.
• This dependence highlights the indispensable role Moscow plays in India’s strategic planning.

A Bridge to the West: Implications Beyond Bilateralism

• The India-Russia relationship is significant not only for the two nations but also for the West.
• Collaborative projects like the BrahMos missile, co-developed by India and Russia and sold to the Philippines, illustrate how this partnership supports the rules-based order.
• Such initiatives allow Russian technology to counter Chinese influence without provoking direct conflict.
• Moreover, India’s diplomatic positioning enables it to act as a bridge between Russia and an increasingly alienated Western bloc, ensuring that Moscow remains tethered to a multilateral system.

Preventing a Sino-Russian Monolith

• India’s partnership with Russia helps counterbalance China’s growing influence over Moscow.
• By offering a relationship of equals, India provides Russia with an alternative to becoming overly dependent on Beijing.
• This dynamic is crucial for global stability, as a Russia entirely subservient to China’s interests would disrupt the balance of power, particularly in Europe and Asia.
• India’s engagement ensures Russia retains its sovereignty in international relations, preserving its role as an independent global actor.

Stabilizing Energy Markets

• The energy trade between India and Russia has broader implications for global markets.
• Designed to comply with sanctions, this trade provides stability and predictability to energy prices.
• For Europe, which remains vulnerable to disruptions, this arrangement is a critical factor in avoiding further political and economic instability.
• India’s role as a mediator in the energy sector underscores its importance in maintaining global market equilibrium.

Arctic and Connectivity Opportunities

• The Indo-Russian partnership opens new avenues in the Arctic, a region of growing strategic importance.
• India’s involvement, in collaboration with Russia and other nations, counters the potential dominance of a Russia-China alliance.
• Initiatives like the proposed Chennai-Vladivostok corridor reflect India’s commitment to fostering inclusive and sustainable governance in the Arctic.
• Such efforts are vital for securing global supply chains and mitigating ecological risks in this fragile region.

Moderating Multilateral Forums

• India’s leadership in multilateral organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) prevents these groupings from becoming antagonistic towards the West.
• By championing moderate and inclusive policies, India ensures these forums complement rather than challenge existing Western-led institutions.
• The inclusion of nations like the UAE, Egypt, and Vietnam, driven by India’s diplomacy, further underscores this balanced approach.

Conclusion: A Global Public Good

• India’s ability to engage with deeply divided geopolitical actors has long been a hallmark of its diplomacy.
• In 2025, the India-Russia relationship will prove critical in stabilizing a fragmented global order.
• While skepticism persists in some Western circles, the partnership’s importance in maintaining energy stability, preventing Sino-Russian hegemony, and fostering inclusive multilateralism cannot be overstated.
• This evolving dynamic between New Delhi and Moscow serves not just the interests of the two nations but also the broader global community.

What are the Challenges in the relation?

Deepening of India-US relations- The India-US relations is rapidly deepening especially in the defense sector, which is exemplified in the India-US nuclear deal in 2008, US emerging as the top arms supplier to India by overtaking Russia and India-US Foundational agreements such LEMOA, COMCASA, BECA. Due to these developments, Russia changed their decades-old policy and start supplying China with weapon systems like Sukhoi 35 and the S-400 missile defence system. Russia’s growing dependence on China- Moscow and Beijing have forged the closest possible ties in their history. This has generated fears that Russia will become a subordinate partner given the growing economic, demographic and technological asymmetry between them. This could jeopardize Moscow’s neutrality on Sino-Indian tensions. Russia’s increased engagement with Pakistan- Russia has been increasing its economic and defence cooperation with Pakistan, like conduction of bilateral exercise Friendship. The RCP axis (Russia, China, Pakistan) will be detrimental to India’s national interest. Trade Imbalances- Even though the bilateral trade between the two nations has increased in the face of crude oil imports, there is considerable trade imbalances between India and Russia. Of the total trade of $65 billion, India’s exports constitute less than $5 billion. Defense Delays- There have been considerable delays in the delivery of military spares and big-ticket weapon systems like the S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile systems, to India due to the Ukraine War. Ukraine Crisis- The continuing Russia-Ukraine war has put India into a diplomatic tightspot. India has been facing significant criticism for not condemning the invasion and continuing energy and economic cooperation with Moscow.

PYQ: What is the significance of Indo-US defence deals over Indo-Russian defence deals? Discuss with reference to stability in the Indo-Pacific region. (250 words/15m) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-2 2020)

Practice Question: Discuss the evolving India-Russia relationship in the context of global power shifts in 2025. How does this partnership influence international stability and multilateralism? (250 words/15 m)