Topic: GS3 – Indian Economy – Effects of liberalisation on the economy This topic is relevant for both Prelims and Mains as the article discusses global trade trends, including factors affecting trade volumes and export earnings. |
Context: |
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Global Trade Volatility:
- Global trade has experienced significant fluctuations in recent years due to various factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical conflicts.
- The data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows a continuous decline in the value of global merchandise trade since the middle of 2022, with a notable 6% decrease in global merchandise exports in 2023.
India’s Performance in Global Trade:
- India’s performance in global trade aligns with this trend, with merchandise exports falling by 7% in 2023.
- Despite this decline, India outperformed developing Asia as a whole, which saw a 8% decrease in merchandise exports.
- However, there were signs of improvement in the January-March 2024 quarter, with sequential growth observed.
Factors Impacting India’s Exports:
- India has faced challenges in the global trade environment, including lower international commodity prices, particularly in energy and non-energy sectors.
- The decline in crude oil prices significantly contributed to the fall in India’s overall merchandise export bill.
- However, despite lower prices, India managed to increase the volume of petroleum exports.
- Excluding petroleum and gems and jewellery exports, core exports increased by 1.4%, indicating higher shipment volumes of goods.
Export Sector Analysis:
- Several key sectors in India’s export portfolio experienced growth, including electronics, drugs and pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, and agricultural products.
- The electronics sector, in particular, saw a notable 24% growth, driven by exports of telecom instruments and mobile handsets incentivized by government schemes.
- Despite bans on certain agricultural products, overall agriculture and allied exports saw healthy growth, driven by categories such as meat and poultry products, spices, fruits and vegetables, oil meals, oilseeds, and unmanufactured tobacco.
Destination of India’s Exports:
- India’s export destinations varied, with a decline in exports to the US, despite solid economic growth in 2023, primarily due to the dominance of the services sector.
- However, exports to the Euro region increased despite economic slowdowns and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Additionally, exports to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, particularly the UAE, rose significantly.
Concerns and Priorities:
- While overall export growth is positive, there are concerns about the decline in labor-intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, textiles, leather, marine products, and plastics.
- The share of these sectors in India’s merchandise exports has decreased over the last decade, highlighting the need to address this decline as a priority.
Future Outlook for India’s Exports:
- Despite challenges, there are positive indicators for India’s exports, including upward revisions to global growth and trade projections by multilateral agencies.
- Bilateral free-trade agreements and efforts to boost manufacturing are expected to further stimulate India’s exports in the near to medium term.
- However, uneven global growth and geopolitical tensions remain potential spoilers that need monitoring.
Conclusion:
- India’s export performance reflects global trade dynamics, with challenges posed by factors such as the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and fluctuating commodity prices.
- While certain sectors have shown resilience and growth, there are concerns about the decline in labor-intensive industries.
- However, with supportive measures and favorable global projections, India’s exports are expected to contribute positively to overall growth momentum in the coming years, though vigilance against potential disruptions remains essential.
How does Economic Slowdown Impact International Trade and Individual’s Purchasing Power? |
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PYQ: With reference to the international trade of India at present, which of the following statements is/are correct? (2020) 1. India’s merchandise exports are less than its merchandise imports. 2. India’s imports of iron and steel, chemicals, fertilizers and machinery have decreased in recent years. 3. India’s exports of services are more than its imports of services. 4. India suffers from an overall trade/current account deficit. Select the correct answer using the code given below: (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 and 4 only (c) 3 only (d) 1, 3 and 4 only Ans: D |
Practice Question: Discuss the trends and challenges in India’s merchandise exports over the past few years, considering the global trade environment and domestic factors. Also, analyze the sector-wise performance of India’s exports and the implications of destination diversification. (250 words/15 m) |