5 April 2024 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

Indian Express Editorial Analysis

4-April-2024

1. The demographic window

Topic: GS1 – Society – Population and associated issues This topic is relevant for both Prelims and Mains in the context of understanding demographic trends, such as population projections and their implications.

 

Context:

The UN Population Division projects India’s population to reach nearly 1.7 billion by 2065, followed by a decline. However, recent projections from The Lancet suggest a lower total fertility rate (TFR) for India, possibly stabilizing its population below the 1.7 billion mark earlier than previously anticipated. This shift in fertility rates has significant implications for India’s demographic dynamics and economic growth trajectory.

Factors Influencing Demographic Transition:

• Several factors have contributed to India’s demographic transition:
  • rapid economic development,
  • declining infant and child mortality rates,
  • increased women’s education and workforce participation,
  • improved housing conditions, and
  • advancements in the old-age security system.
• These factors collectively have led to a decline in TFR, indicating a shift towards smaller family sizes and an aging population.

Economic Implications of Declining Fertility Rates:

• The decline in TFR leads to a decrease in the dependency ratio and a larger proportion of working-age adults, potentially boosting economic growth through surplus income and positive intergenerational transfers.
• However, it also presents challenges, such as an increase in the elderly dependent population, similar to trends observed in China, Japan, and European countries.
• The dependency ratio in India is projected to rise from 13.8 in 2011 to 23 in 2036.

Regional Disparities and Transition Period:

• The decline in TFR varies across states, with some regions experiencing faster transitions than others.
• Large states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand may take longer to achieve replacement-level fertility.
• Inter-district variations further complicate the transition process, highlighting the need for tailored policy interventions at regional levels.

Implications for Education and Workforce Development:

• A declining TFR influences education outcomes, with fewer children enrolling in schools, particularly in states like Kerala.
• This creates opportunities to improve educational quality without increasing state spending.
• However, attention must shift towards addressing high drop-out rates in middle and higher education, necessitating greater investment in technical and professional education.

Women’s Workforce Participation and Sectoral Shifts:

• Reduced childcare responsibilities due to declining fertility rates may lead to increased women’s workforce participation.
• This shift, coupled with the transition from agriculture to industries and services, can balance sectoral distribution and address labor shortages in growing sectors.
• Skill development among marginalized groups is crucial to ensure equitable participation in the modern workforce.

Spatial Redistribution of Labor and Economic Outlook:

• The north-south movement of labor is emerging as a significant trend, contributing to spatial balance in the labor market.
• Modern sectors in southern states and Gujarat and Maharashtra attract labor from northern states, potentially improving working conditions and mitigating wage discrimination and security concerns.
• The Asian Development Bank’s Asia 2050 report underscores the importance of workforce redistribution, skill development, and women’s participation in sustaining India’s economic growth.

Challenges and Opportunities in Health Care

• Improvements in life expectancy will lead to an aging population and increased demand for healthcare services.
• India must address these challenges effectively to capitalize on demographic opportunities and achieve sustainable development goals ahead of predicted timelines.

Conclusion:

• India’s shifting demographic landscape poses both challenges and opportunities for economic growth, education, workforce development, and healthcare.
• Addressing regional disparities, investing in skill development, promoting women’s workforce participation, and ensuring equitable access to healthcare are essential for harnessing the potential of India’s demographic dividend.

Why fertility went down in India

Post-independence, there was a need to restrict the population. So the Family Welfare Programme, including maternal and child health-related cash transfer inducements, were intended to convince people to have no more than two children. Slowly that behavior change started showing up Infant mortality declined substantially (because of various maternal and child health-related programmes and successful immunization) meaning child survival was guaranteed. With development, the intergenerational flow of wealth has reversed. This means parents now do not receive much benefit from their children the way they used to. This has influenced their decision to have an additional child that would involve a substantial cost of bringing them up. The other significant factor has clearly been the rise of female literacy and women’s participation in the workforce. Career consciousness, financial returns and economic independence have meant that women are reconsidering their options of having a second child. In the urban space, many women do not consider child-rearing as a must-do task, instead choosing not to have babies at all and even considering options like adoption. This pattern is percolating to rural India too.

 

Practice Question:  Discuss the implications of India’s shifting demographic landscape on its economic development and social fabric. Analyze the factors contributing to the decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) and its regional variations. (250 words/15 m)

 

2. West against the rest

Topic: GS2 – International Relations – Important International institutions, agencies and fora – their structure, mandate. This topic is relevant for both Prelims and Mains in the context of understanding the roles and actions of international organizations like NATO.

 

Context:

NATO, marking its 75th anniversary, appears jubilant, yet a critical examination reveals a somber reality. Initially established to defend member states from aggression, NATO’s history is marred by a lack of actual threats. Instead, it has been implicated in over 200 military conflicts, including major ones like the bombing of Yugoslavia, invasion of Iraq, and military interference in Syria. These actions have often resulted in devastation rather than stability, raising questions about NATO’s objectives and methods.

Expansion and Provocations:

• Despite assurances to the contrary, NATO has expanded its reach through five waves since 1991. Notably, the transformation of Ukraine into a platform against Russia has escalated tensions.
• While Russia has shown restraint, NATO’s disregard for this has been evident, as seen in its reaction to events like the anniversary of the bombing of Yugoslavia.
• The expansionist moves, coupled with aggressive rhetoric and actions, have exacerbated geopolitical tensions, particularly with Russia.

Military Hegemony and Colonial Practices:

• NATO’s military prowess serves as a tool for maintaining Western hegemony under the guise of promoting democracy and human rights.
• The alliance’s aggressive posture and dismantling of dialogue mechanisms with Russia signal a departure from peaceful aspirations.
• NATO’s actions are perceived by an increasing number of countries as a continuation of colonial practices, reflecting a disconnect between rhetoric and reality.

Contemporary Challenges and Global Ambitions:

• NATO’s recent strategic shifts, such as proclaiming Russia as the primary threat and extending influence into new regions, highlight its ambition for global dominance.
• Initiatives like AUKUS and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific demonstrate efforts to expand influence and encircle perceived adversaries.
• Such maneuvers risk escalating tensions and destabilizing regions, contradicting NATO’s stated objectives of promoting peace and security.

Way Forward: Dialogue and Cooperation:

• In response to NATO’s aggressive stance, Russia emphasizes the need for equal cooperation and dialogue to address mutual concerns and maintain regional stability.
• A sustainable system of European and global security necessitates inclusivity and consideration of all stakeholders’ interests.
• NATO’s current trajectory risks exacerbating tensions and undermining prospects for constructive engagement.
• Only through genuine dialogue and mutual respect can the path towards peace and security be forged.

Conclusion:

• NATO’s anniversary serves as a moment for critical reflection on its past actions and future trajectory.
• Addressing concerns raised by its aggressive posture and expansionist ambitions is imperative to fostering genuine peace and stability on the global stage.

What is NATO?

Formed in 1949 with the signing of the Washington Treaty, NATO is a security alliance of 30 countries from North America and Europe. Recently, Finland joined the alliance as 31st member. NATO’s fundamental goal is to safeguard the Allies’ freedom and security by political and military means. It is a system of collective defence where independent member states agree for mutual defence in case of any attack by external party. Article 5 of the Washington Treaty states that an attack against one Ally is an attack against all. This article forms the core of the Alliance, a promise of collective defense. Headquarter – Brussels, Belgium. What are the functions of NATO? Political  NATO promotes democratic values and enables members to consult and cooperate on defence and security-related issues to solve problems, build trust and, in the long run, prevent conflict. Military NATO is committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes. If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations.

 

PYQ: The expansion and strengthening of NATO and a stronger US-Europe strategic partnership works well for India.” What is your opinion about this statement? Give reasons and examples to support your answer. (250 words/15m) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-2 2023)

Practice Question:  Critically analyze NATO’s role in international security and its impact on global geopolitics. Evaluate the implications of NATO’s actions on global peace and security, and suggest measures to promote constructive dialogue and cooperation among nations in addressing contemporary security challenges. (250 words/15 m)

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