10 April 2024 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

Indian Express Editorial Analysis

9-April-2024

1. Quality of growth

Topic: GS3 – Indian economy – Inclusive growth This topic is relevant for both Prelims and Mains in the context of understanding key economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rates, foreign investments, and credit trends.

 

Context:

The Indian economy is currently experiencing a favorable phase characterized by robust growth, controlled inflation, substantial foreign institutional investments (FII), and sound corporate and banking sectors. However, while there are several positive indicators, there are also lingering concerns that warrant caution.

 Positive Economic Indicators:

• GDP Growth and PMI Manufacturing: Economic data for the third quarter of 2023-24 indicates a GDP growth rate of 8.4 percent, accompanied by a PMI Manufacturing index at a 16-month high of 59.1 in March. These figures contribute to the overall economic optimism.

• Healthy Credit Ratio: The credit ratio, indicating the number of rating upgrades to downgrades, stands at a robust 1.92 in the second half of 2023-24, reflecting the favorable conditions in the corporate and banking sectors.

• Growth Drivers: India has witnessed growth rates above 8 percent in the first three quarters of 2023-24, primarily driven by investment. However, consumption growth remains subdued, with estimates suggesting a mere 3 percent increase compared to the pre-pandemic level of 7 percent.

• Rural Demand: Despite weak overall consumption, there’s a silver lining in the form of improved rural demand. FMCG volume growth in rural areas has risen to 6.2 percent in the second half of 2023, indicating a revival in consumer sentiment.

Challenges and Concerns:

• Weak Consumption Growth: The disparity between spending euphoria for certain items like cars and cautious spending in categories like FMCG and apparel suggests lingering consumer apprehension.

• Employment Concerns: Layoffs in the IT sector coupled with weak hiring pose challenges to urban consumer sentiments, potentially impacting overall consumption demand.

• Sectoral Variations: While certain sectors like manufacturing and services have flourished, others like agriculture have suffered due to poor monsoon conditions.

Investment and External Trade:

• Private Sector Investment: Private investment, particularly in sectors like steel, cement, automobile, and renewable energy, holds the key to sustained growth momentum.

• Export Performance: Despite weak merchandise exports, services exports have remained healthy, supported by sectors like software services and business consulting.

Financial Indicators:

• FII Inflows: Strong FII inflows amounting to $41 billion in 2023-24 have bolstered India’s forex reserves to around $643 billion. However, caution is warranted due to the volatile nature of these flows.

• Inflation: While overall inflation has moderated, high food inflation, particularly in essential commodities like vegetables, pulses, and spices, remains a concern.

• Credit Trends: Despite higher interest rates, retail credit continues to rise, signaling changing consumption patterns and easy access to credit. However, there’s a need for vigilance to prevent potential stress in banks’ retail loans.

Policy Implications and Future Outlook:

• Quality of Growth: The government must focus on ensuring the quality of growth while remaining vigilant about potential risks.

• Fiscal Consolidation: Continued emphasis on fiscal consolidation and reduction in public debt, as seen in the interim budget, is crucial for maintaining economic stability.

• Potential Growth: Structural developments like digitalization and increased formalization have elevated India’s potential growth. However, efforts to promote inclusive and sustainable growth must remain a priority for the new government.

Conclusion:

• While the Indian economy is currently in a favorable position, policymakers must navigate carefully, addressing challenges while capitalizing on opportunities for sustainable growth and development.

What Steps can be Taken to Make the Growth More Inclusive?

Workforce Development and Participation: India’s sizable and youthful population presents an enormous workforce potential. However, realizing this potential requires addressing challenges like job creation, improving education quality, enhancing skills, and boosting labor force participation, especially among women. Private Investment for Economic Growth: Recognizing private investment as a vital driver of economic growth, the Indian government has initiated measures to enhance the Ease of Doing Business, reduce corporate taxes, offer credit guarantees, and attract foreign direct investment. Ongoing reforms, particularly in land, labor, and logistics, are essential to further ease business operations. Enhancing Global Competitiveness: To bolster its competitiveness in the global market, India must diversify exports, enhance infrastructure, foster innovation and digitalization, and integrate with regional and global value chains. Despite supportive schemes like PLI, Phased Manufacturing Program (PMP), and Make in India, further trade liberalization and regulatory simplification are necessary for fair competition between domestic and foreign enterprises. Environmental Sustainability and Climate Goals: India has committed to reducing carbon intensity and increasing renewable energy capacity to meet climate change goals. While green bonds support eco-friendly projects, addressing environmental challenges like air pollution, water scarcity, waste management, and biodiversity loss requires heightened efforts to safeguard India’s growth and well-being. Economic Stability and Financial Development: Ensuring a stable and low inflation rate fosters confidence and investment in India. Prioritizing adequate liquidity and credit availability, especially for small and medium enterprises, is crucial. Further development of financial markets and institutions will facilitate savings and investment. Global Integration and Trade Agreements: India can strengthen its global economic ties by reducing trade barriers, diversifying its export portfolio, and enhancing overall competitiveness. Pursuing regional and bilateral trade agreements offers opportunities for market expansion, benefiting Indian products and services. Sectoral Growth and Innovation: Promoting growth, employment, and innovation in key sectors such as manufacturing, services, agriculture, and renewable energy is vital for India’s sustained development. Strategic focus on these sectors, supported by proactive policies, can drive economic progress. Diversifying Opportunities in High-Growth Sectors: To enhance economic prospects, there is a pressing need to explore opportunities beyond the dominant information technology and IT-enabled services. ·      For instance, the opening up of the domestic legal services sector presents significant benefits for Indian lawyers, providing lucrative opportunities in Europe, Australia, and America. Targeting Promising Service Sectors for Growth: Emphasizing the importance of diversification, there is a call to concentrate on promising areas such as higher education, hospitality, and medical tourism. This strategic shift aims to broaden the scope of economic growth beyond the confines of traditional sectors. Encouraging Competitiveness through Subsidy Reform: The government advocates for the services industry to relinquish dependence on government subsidies, asserting that this shift will foster competitiveness among firms. By redirecting subsidy funds to those in greater need, the overall economic landscape can be optimized for sustained growth.

 

PYQ: Do you agree with the view that steady GDP growth and low inflation have left the Indian economy in good shape? Give reasons in support of your arguments. (150 words/10m) (UPSC CSE (M) GS-3 2019)

Practice Question:  Discuss the recent trends and challenges in the Indian economy. What are the key factors contributing to economic optimism, and what are the areas of concern that require careful consideration? (250 words/15 m)

 

2. Election’s missing questions

Topic: GS1 – Society – This topic is relevant for both Prelims and Mains as the analysis delves into the various dimensions of democracy, including its perception among different segments of society and its functional aspects beyond elections.

 

Context:

As the election season approaches, the assessment of India’s democracy varies depending on who is asked. While many Indians perceive democracy through the lens of free and fair elections, elected governance, and executive implementation of laws, international agencies and domestic liberals often highlight shortcomings such as erosion of constitutional values and institutions.

 

Diverse Interpretations:

• The definition of democracy and its expected outcomes differ among various segments of society, ranging from taxi drivers to college students.
• While most Indians prioritize electoral democracy, international agencies and domestic critics emphasize broader indicators such as freedom of expression, religious practice, and fair trials.

Democracy as a Means of Progress:

• Functional View: Viewing democracy as a means for societal progress, particularly in material, cultural, and social aspects, underscores the importance of informed choices and collective action. Electoral democracy serves as a mechanism to implement this broader objective, facilitating accountability and development.
• Role of Knowledge and Information: Emphasizing the role of knowledge and information in democracy, particularly through reports and platforms for discussion provided by universities and scientific agencies. Examples from countries like Canada highlight how information cycles contribute to prosperity and societal well-being.

Challenges in Indian Society:

• Lack of Information and Accountability: Contrasting the situation in India, where issues like irregular water supply, poor infrastructure, and inadequate healthcare often go unacknowledged or unaddressed. The absence of comprehensive reports and community participation limits accountability and efficient governance.

• Administrative Deficiencies: Highlighting administrative shortcomings at both district and national levels, where critical issues like air pollution and education quality receive insufficient attention. Despite the severity of these problems, they often do not feature prominently in electoral discourse or policy agendas.

Educational and Civic Challenges:

• Quality of Education: Addressing concerns about the quality of education in India, as highlighted by reports indicating low levels of basic literacy and numeracy among youth. This raises questions about the populace’s ability to engage with complex issues and make informed decisions.

• Functional Democracy or Electoral Ritual?: Reflecting on whether India is truly a functional democracy or merely a nation that regularly holds elections. The discrepancy between democratic ideals and the realities of governance underscores the need for deeper introspection and reform.

Conclusion:

• Advocating for reforms that enhance accountability, transparency, and civic participation in India’s democratic processes.
• Recognizing the importance of addressing systemic deficiencies to ensure that democracy serves as a vehicle for societal progress and collective well-being, rather than merely a ritualistic exercise.

What Role can India play as the Mother of Democracy?

Nurturing values: India can play a crucial role as the “Mother of Democracy,” nurturing fundamental values through its diverse cultural heritage. The country’s rich history, influenced by epics like Mahabharat and Ramayan, contributes to the cultivation of democratic principles and enduring ethical values. Public awareness: India can play a crucial role as the “Mother of Democracy” by fostering public awareness. With a rich democratic heritage, the nation serves as a beacon for promoting civic engagement, political participation, and a deeper understanding of democratic principles among its citizens. Modern education: India, as the Mother of Democracy in modern education, promotes democratic principles through a curriculum fostering critical thinking, inclusivity, and civic engagement, shaping generations with a strong democratic foundation. Global leadership in forums like G20: India’s commitment aligns with G20 goals of economic stability and sustainable development. India’s democratic ethos advocates open dialogue, human rights, and inclusive policies, contrasting with some global players. India amplifies developing nations’ voices, promoting equitable representation and diverse perspectives in decision-making. India underscores the global importance of democratic values, shaping discussions and policies for international cooperation and understanding. India’s Leadership: India’s presidency of the G20 reflects its commitment to democratic values and international cooperation. The country aims to lead by example and promote global democratic principles. Collective Strength: India’s progress and vision are grounded in the collective strength of its people. The focus is on the power of collaboration, consensus, and unity to overcome challenges and achieve national and global goals.

 

PYQ: Which one of the following factors constitutes the best safeguard of liberty in a liberal democracy? (2021) (a) A committed judiciary (b) Centralization of powers (c) Elected government (d) Separation of powers

Practice Question:  Discuss the challenges and prospects of democracy in India, considering diverse perspectives and highlighting the role of governance, accountability, and societal progress. (250 words/15 m)

 

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