16 October 2024 : Indian Express Editorial Analysis

1. A tough road from the brink

(Source: Indian Express; Section: The Editorial Page; Page: 12)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations

Context:

The India-Canada relationship reached a critical low on October 14, largely due to public accusations that have moved beyond diplomatic disagreements into the realm of political attacks. This shift makes it difficult to restore even basic diplomatic ties in the near future, even after the tensions settle. The nature of the issues has made the process of normalizing relations more complex and drawn-out.

Trudeau’s Allegations and the Downward Spiral

• Relations between India and Canada began deteriorating when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau informed Parliament on September 18, 2023, about “credible allegations” linking Indian agents to the killing of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
• India refuted the allegations, accusing Canada of hypocrisy for tolerating its citizens’ promotion of violent separatism in India through the support for the Khalistan movement.
• Although these diplomatic accusations were serious, the conflict worsened when it became politicized.

Diplomatic Meetings and Fallout

• On October 12, Indian National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval reportedly met his Canadian counterpart in Singapore to discuss the ramifications of the Nijjar case and accusations against Indian diplomats.
• While India remained silent on the details, Trudeau publicly emphasized the importance of the meeting, suggesting that Prime Minister Modi was aware of its significance.
• However, the absence of an official Canadian account of the meeting left room for speculation, with media reports claiming that Indian diplomats had engaged in intelligence gathering missions targeting Sikh separatists.
• This narrative, however, has been criticized as detached from the realities of Indian diplomacy.

Diplomatic Retaliation and Public Statements

• The conflict escalated when Canada requested India to lift the diplomatic immunity of six Indian diplomats, which included the Indian High Commissioner. India responded by recalling its diplomats and expelling Canadian diplomats in retaliation, intensifying the diplomatic row.
• India’s forceful stance, along with earlier demands for Canada to reduce its diplomatic presence, has worsened bilateral relations, impacting areas like people-to-people exchanges.

Legal and Territorial Disputes

• Despite Canada’s assurances of respecting India’s territorial integrity, it has accused India of infringing on Canadian sovereignty. Canadian officials have defended the activities of pro-Khalistani groups, characterizing them as lawful under Canada’s laws on freedom of expression.
• This legal distinction contrasts sharply with how Western democracies, including Canada, often suppress similar freedoms when their national security is threatened.
• This perceived double standard has added further tension, as India views Trudeau’s remarks on its domestic matters as a violation of international law.

The Way Forward for India

• India must carefully navigate its response to the current situation, especially as Canada claims its actions aim to disrupt Indian activities against Canadian nationals.
• With four Indian nationals already in Canadian custody, future legal proceedings could present further challenges for India. At the same time, India needs to strengthen its ties with Western allies, making it clear that the Canadian allegations and actions are politically motivated and lack credibility.
• Diplomatic engagement with these countries could help defuse the situation and prevent further deterioration of India’s international standing.                                                  

Practice Question:  Examine the recent deterioration in India-Canada relations, particularly in the context of public accusations and political attacks. Discuss the key factors leading to the breakdown, the diplomatic implications for both countries, and possible paths toward de-escalation. (250 words/15 m)

2. Pakistan’s other front   

(Source: Indian Express; Section: The Ideas Page; Page: 13)

Topic: GS2 – International Relations

Context:

The article highlights how the geopolitical turmoil in Pakistan’s western borderlands, particularly involving the Pashtun and Baloch regions, holds more significant consequences for regional stability than India-Pakistan diplomacy.

Overshadowed Geopolitical Dynamics

• India’s focus on its bilateral relationship with Pakistan often overshadows more significant geopolitical developments in and around Pakistan.
• While much speculation surrounds External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s recent visit to Pakistan, more critical events on Pakistan’s western frontier, such as the Pashtun Qaumi Jirga in Khyber district, offer greater insight into the region’s future than India-Pakistan diplomacy.

Limited Progress in India-Pakistan Relations

• India and Pakistan’s bilateral diplomacy has often generated enthusiasm but rarely yielded significant breakthroughs. Despite occasional advances, the deeply entrenched structure of their relationship has remained stagnant.
• Jaishankar’s recent visit, the first by an Indian foreign minister in a decade, raised expectations, but the congealed nature of the relationship suggests that any positive outcomes are unlikely to change the overall dynamics.

Historic Impact of Pakistan’s Western Borderlands

• Far more consequential than India-Pakistan ties are the events along Pakistan’s western frontier.
• Two historic developments in 1979—the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan—have profoundly shaped the region.
• The Iranian Revolution led to an Islamic Republic in Tehran, setting the stage for ongoing conflict between Iran and its neighbors, which continues to impact global geopolitics.
• The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, in turn, normalized Islamic militancy in the region, with far-reaching consequences, including the rise of the Taliban.

The Resurgence of Taliban Power and Pashtun Discontent

• The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in 2021 has intensified tensions along the Durand Line, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• Pakistan’s hopes of controlling Afghanistan through the Taliban have faltered, as the Taliban asserts its autonomy.
• Additionally, Kabul has been accused of sheltering the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group that seeks autonomy in the Pashtun regions, further undermining the Pakistani state’s authority.

The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement and Growing Regional Instability

• The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), advocating for the rights of the Pashtun people, has emerged as a significant force of opposition to the Pakistani state.
• Despite the Pakistani government banning the PTM, the movement continues to call for the withdrawal of both the military and militants from Pashtun lands and for greater political and economic rights.
• The PTM, along with the TTP and the Afghan Taliban, shares the common goal of reopening the Durand Line and reuniting the Pashtun lands, a prospect that deeply unsettles Pakistan.

Pakistan’s Challenges: Pashtunistan and Balochistan

• Pakistan’s fear of a potential Pashtunistan—a unified Pashtun state that could challenge its territorial integrity—continues to drive its military strategy.
• However, the longstanding societal unrest in the Pashtun regions, exacerbated by half a century of upheaval, remains difficult to contain.
• Compounding this instability is the growing unrest in Balochistan, where nationalist movements are increasingly targeting Chinese nationals and Punjabi settlers.
• This rise in both Pashtun and Baloch nationalism is likely to keep Pakistan’s western frontier unstable for years.

Implications for India and the Region

• The ongoing instability in Pakistan’s western borderlands will inevitably impact its neighbors, including India. Over the last five decades, the geopolitical turmoil in these regions has influenced internal, regional, and international relations in South Asia.
• As Pakistan grapples with these challenges, India’s approach to its relationship with Pakistan may depend more on how Pakistan manages the turbulence on its western front than on the stalled diplomacy along the Radcliffe Line.                               

Indian perspective

Strategic Implications: India’s interest in Balochistan primarily stems from the region’s strategic importance, given its location and the Gwadar port’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz. Diplomatic Stance: India has occasionally highlighted human rights issues in Balochistan, especially in international forums, as a counter-narrative to Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir. However, India’s involvement remains cautious to avoid escalating tensions with Pakistan. Impact on Regional Stability: The unrest in Balochistan, coupled with Chinese involvement, complicates the security situation in South Asia. India’s approach will likely focus on balancing its strategic interests while advocating for the rights of the Baloch people within international norms.

Practice Question:  Discuss the geopolitical significance of Pakistan’s western borderlands, particularly the Pashtun and Baloch regions, and analyze how the instability in these areas impacts Pakistan’s internal security and its relations with neighboring countries, including India. (250 words/15 m)