17 August 2023 : Indian Express
Indian Express
17-August–2023
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1. GLOBAL HEADWINDS
Topic: GS3-Economy
Context:
The Trade Data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry a few days ago points towards a continuing weakness in India’s exports.
Major concerns
- Merchandise exports fell to a nine month low of $32.25 billion in July, a decline of almost 16 percent.
- Goods imports also fell by 17 percent to $52.9 billion.
- In the first four months of the financial year (April-July), exports and imports have now contracted by 14.5 percent and 13.8 percent respectively.
- While part of the decline can be traced towards lower commodity prices, both non-oil exports and imports have fallen indicating weak global and domestic demand. These are worrying signs.
- The disaggregated data shows that 19 of the 30 major export items have declined during April-July. These also include labour intensive sectors such as gems and jewellery, leather products, textiles and others.
- As per an analysis by Crisil, the decline in India’s exports has been more pronounced in the Asia Pacific region. As per this analysis, the share of APAC in India’s goods exports has been on a decline since the beginning of the pandemic.
- While in 2019, the region accounted for 33 percent of India’s merchandise exports, by2022-23, its share in the country’s export basket had declined to 26.5percent, while the combined share of the US and the EU rose to 34 per cent.
Way Forward
- In the near term, slowing global demand and trade will continue to weigh down exports. As per the International Monetary Fund’s July update of its World Economic Outlook, the world economy is likely to grow at 3 percent this year, down from 3.5 percent the year before.
- Alongside, world trade volume growth (goods and services) is expected to slow down from 5.2 percent last year to 2 percent this year. In fact, growth this year is now projected to be 0.4 percentage points lower than the IMF’s earlier forecast.
- Considering its broader economic implications such as on job creation and the current account, policy must focus on boosting merchandise exports.
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