31 October 2023 : The Hindu Editorial Notes PDF
The Hindu Editorial
31-October-2023
1. The COVID-19 death toll in India, getting it right
Topic: GS3 – Health sector
Measuring Pandemic Impact:
- Excess mortality is a key metric used to measure the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- It is calculated by comparing observed mortality during the pandemic with expected mortality based on pre-pandemic trends.
Challenges in India:
- India faces challenges in directly estimating excess deaths due to COVID-19 due to incomplete death registration (about 70% registration).
- Death registration data in India varies widely across States and districts.
- The data does not provide weekly or monthly mortality data necessary for excess death calculations.
Data Compilation and Modeling:
- Independent investigators collected mortality records from government Civil Registration System (CRS) in 14 States and nine cities from January 2018 to May 2021.
- These records were used to develop modelled excess mortality estimates for India.
Variability in Estimates:
- COVID-19-related death estimates for India vary widely among different studies.
- The highest estimate was 4.7 million excess deaths in India during 2020-2021 using local data as inputs.
- There are concerns that some of the estimates may have overestimated COVID-related excess deaths in India.
- Various studies faced limitations and biases in data and assumptions.
Call for a Task Force:
- The author recommends establishing a task force of national experts to address this issue.
- The task force should have access to microdata from CRS, SRS, and other relevant sources.
- This task force would conduct a comprehensive analysis using standard statistical methods to provide accurate excess mortality measures at various levels.
- Accurate district-level mortality measures are essential for addressing various health challenges.
- These measures are vital for informed health actions, especially at the district level.
Strengthening Data Quality:
- There is an urgent need to improve the attribution of causes of death, including medical certification and retrospective interview methods.
- These initiatives will enhance data quality and the utility of CRS for mortality measurement in India.
2. Towards stabilisation of U.S.-China ties
Topic: GS2 – International relations.
Quiet U.S.-China Dialogue:
- S. and China have moved from a period of minimal communication to a potential presidential summit at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
- This shift signifies a possible tactical stabilization of relations between two major global powers.
Immediate Impact on West Asia:
- Improved U.S.-China dialogue can promote restraint in West Asia.
- China’s influence on Iran, which supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, can play a pivotal role in regional stability.
U.S. Position:
- The U.S. holds a position of strength economically and diplomatically.
- It has strengthened alliances, especially in the Indo-Pacific, and maintained a tough stance on China.
- The U.S. has maintained tariffs and export restrictions to limit China’s high-tech industry growth.
- The National Security Strategy identifies China as a major competitor with the intent to reshape the international order.
China’s Perspective:
- China believes the U.S. is in decline and seeks a cooperative co-existence approach.
- It aims for acceptance of its political system and regional dominance in the western Pacific.
Global Relevance:
- S.-China relations impact global issues like climate change and regional crises such as West Asia.
- Enhanced cooperation is essential to effectively address these global challenges.
Summit Hope:
- The Biden-Xi summit is expected to improve bilateral relations, despite the competitive nature of the relationship.
- A pragmatic approach is needed to ensure the U.S. and China can work together effectively while acknowledging their competitive dynamics.
For Enquiry
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